Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...THEY MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AROUND 3000J/KG CAPE AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.  THIS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...
SURFACE TEMP/TD SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 DEGREES WILL AID IN
DOWNBURST/SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. ONE CAVEAT TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS THE SHIELD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM
EARLIER STORMS.

AS THE UPPER WAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD...AND OUT OF THE CWA BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
THEN...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM
TOMORROW...WHICH MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS
TODAY.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY...HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE USHERED AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  LOOKS LIKE
STORMS MAY INITIALLY HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LITTLE STEERING
FLOW...BUT MAY ADVANCE EASTWARD AS A COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED IN THE EVENING. RAISED POPS A FEW
MORE NOTCHES ACROSS THE NE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS MONDAY
EVENING. MAY GET PRETTY GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. THIS WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL BE PRETTY
THIN...THUS SHOULD BE EASILY MIXED BACK OUT ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST AS THE DRYLINE WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH.

THE OTHER STORY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE HEAT. ROSWELL HAS ALREADY
MADE IT INTO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO DO SO AGAIN
TOMORROW. SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE TO TWO HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS GET JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
CRITICAL RANGE...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WELL INTO THE EVENING. A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE OTHER STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AS FAR AS CONVECTION OUT
WEST...IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
AS MOISTURE IS JUST TOO MARGINAL. IN FACT RH NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL WHILE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN MOST OF THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. ON MON ANOTHER RELATIVELY
MOIST SURGE SHOULD INTRUDE INTO EAST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL AREAS
AREAS PROVIDING BETTER RH RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE STORM CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. WIDESPREAD HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHIFTED TO JUST THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SUPER HAINES IN THE WEST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE STATE LATER NEXT WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHERWISE DRY AND VERY WARM WITH
LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED. TO THE
EAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...CREATING BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 AND 50 KTS...HAIL TO
ONE HALF INCH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WITH MOST STORMS. BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA TO BE E OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO
KTCC BETWEEN 20Z AND 05Z. ONE INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  40  86  40  85 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  42  88  47  86 /   0   0   0  20
GALLUP..........................  45  88  43  88 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  41  85  39  85 /   0   0   0  10
GRANTS..........................  45  88  44  89 /   0   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  49  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  45  91  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  80  44  77 /   5  10   5  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  85  62  83 /   0   5   0  20
PECOS...........................  56  86  60  83 /  10   5   5  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  81  50  78 /   5  10   5  30
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  70 /  20  20  10  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  40  75  42  70 /  20  30  20  50
TAOS............................  44  88  48  84 /   0   5   0  20
MORA............................  53  84  55  79 /  20  20  10  50
ESPANOLA........................  48  92  54  89 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA FE........................  55  86  60  83 /   0   5   5  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  91  57  88 /   0   5   0  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  91  62  90 /   0   5   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  92  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  93  60  94 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  93  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  94  57  93 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  59  92 /   0   0   0  10
SOCORRO.........................  60  97  58  96 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  88  58  86 /   5   5   5  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  92  59  88 /   0   5   5  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  90  52  88 /  10   5   5  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  87  57  84 /  20   5   5  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  54  86 /   5   5   5  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  58  85  58  83 /  10   5   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  53  82  59  78 /  20  30  30  50
RATON...........................  48  91  54  87 /  20  30  20  50
SPRINGER........................  53  90  53  86 /  20  20  20  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  87  56  83 /  20  10  10  50
CLAYTON.........................  61  92  62  89 /  30  30  30  40
ROY.............................  59  89  58  85 /  20  20  20  40
CONCHAS.........................  64  96  64  93 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  63  97  63  94 /  20   5   5  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  99  66  96 /  20  10  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  98  63  94 /  30  10   5  20
PORTALES........................  64  99  64  95 /  30  10   5  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65 102  62  99 /  20   5   5  20
ROSWELL.........................  65 102  64 100 /  10   0   0  10
PICACHO.........................  64  96  63  93 /  20   5   5  10
ELK.............................  60  89  60  88 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
553 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
216 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

NMZ527-530-022045-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-UNION COUNTY-
216 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND EXTREME
EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

AT 212 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOLSOM...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTH OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FOLSOM AND STATE ROAD 456
NORTH AND EAST OF FOLSOM.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10350 3685 10347 3674 10366 3674 10386
      3675 10403 3699 10392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 256DEG 13KT 3691 10377

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
351 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

NMZ532-533-022215-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
351 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SAN MIGUEL AND NORTHERN
GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

AT 350 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA ROSA LAKE STATE
PARK...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANTA ROSA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
NORTHERN GUADALUPE AND SOUTHERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 10439 3519 10422 3500 10451 3502 10472
      3521 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 238DEG 19KT 3519 10454