Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ON QUE
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VARIETY ARE IN LARGE PART THE DRIER VARIETY
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL FOOTPRINT OF UP TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME OF THE CELLS. BASED ON CURRENT HUMIDITY READINGS...A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY EXISTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH AMA RADAR
SHOWING SOME ENHANCED ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY FDX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LATEST
SWOMCD FROM SPC SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. MICROBURST WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING THE CURRENT MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA EASTWARD OVER THE STATE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MEANS LESSENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE A STRENGTHENING OR SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED.
THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE CULIMINATION DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WENT AHEAD AND PLACED
POSSIBLITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST WORDING DUE TO A
BETTER THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
OUTBREAK EVENT THERE.

THEREAFTER...NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCES MORE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS THE
DRYSLOT OVERTAKES THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESIDUAL STRONGER WIND FLOWS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE WEEKEND PERIOD ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN SHAKY THE PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS
SO DIDNT ADJUST THE GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DIG A FAIRLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY AND FURTHER IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE UNSETTLED BUT
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE STATE WOULD
GET...IF ANY. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE BULLISH FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT TAF SITES...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH. A WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSW
OVERNIGHT...WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE-TYPE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...

ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND. WETTING RAINS FROM THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT BEGINS TO WORK-OVER THE STATE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TREND DOWN...EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WINDS WILL LIKELY HIT
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONES 101...105 AND 109. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH COVERING THOSE ZONES LOOKS GOOD AND THE LATEST
FORECAST DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT EXPANDING IT FURTHER EAST AT THIS
TIME. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE ADVANCES
EASTWARD AND SPARKS A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION.

DRY WESTERLIES WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND
VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY FRIDAY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER A
LITTLE DAYTIME MIXING...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A LITTLE RELIEF IS
FORECAST SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-BOUND
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  79  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  30  75  31  75 /   5   0   5   5
CUBA............................  39  77  39  78 /  10   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  35  75  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  33  72  33  71 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  35  77  36  75 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  41  75  41  73 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  47  81  42  78 /   5   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  34  69  37  70 /   5  10   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  74  51  76 /  10   5   5   5
PECOS...........................  46  73  46  75 /  20  10  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  74  37  75 /  10  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  37  62  36  64 /  10  20  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  64  32  66 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  35  74  36  76 /  10  10   5  10
MORA............................  38  70  40  73 /  20  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  39  81  37  82 /  10  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  48  74  47  76 /  10  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  78  45  80 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  79  52  80 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  80  53  81 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  51  81  49  83 /  10   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  81  47  82 /  10   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  48  82  45  83 /  10   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  50  81  47  81 /  10   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  49  84  47  85 /  10   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  77  43  79 /  10  10   5  10
TIJERAS.........................  47  79  46  81 /  10  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  76  44  78 /  20  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  46  74  45  76 /  30  20  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  47  77  48  79 /  20  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  81  43  82 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  44  73  47  74 /  30  20  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  46  68  47  71 /  20  30  30  20
RATON...........................  39  75  42  78 /  20  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  38  74  40  77 /  30  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  74  43  76 /  30  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  49  71  54  72 /  20  30  40  40
ROY.............................  45  73  49  74 /  20  30  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  51  80  52  81 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  50  81  52  84 /  30  20  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  56  83  59  81 /  30  30  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  53  79  58  79 /  40  30  40  30
PORTALES........................  55  81  59  81 /  40  30  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  86  55  88 /  30  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  50  86  57  88 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  47  82  50  86 /  30  20  20  20
ELK.............................  45  79  49  81 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-109.

&&

50/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON APR 9 2012

NMZ501>540-101200-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UNION COUNTY-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CAPULIN...TO TUCUMCARI...TO ELIDA BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
ARE POSSIBLE.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO SEVERE STORMS.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

NMZ531-532-092045-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
217 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND SOUTHERN
HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

AT 211 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCHAS DAM...OR ABOUT 19
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOSQUERO...MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN
SAN MIGUEL AND SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 10372 3525 10375 3539 10419 3556 10419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 247DEG 16KT 3554 10408

50

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
507 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

NMZ529-532-533-092330-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
507 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

AT 504 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
SANTA ROSA LAKE STATE PARK TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCHAS...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 10482 3537 10492 3540 10427 3512 10412
      3510 10413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 307DEG 24KT 3522 10463 3522 10425

GUYER