Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Albuquerque, NM

071 
WWUS55 KABQ 122100
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NMC028-039-043-049-055-122111-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-121012T2100Z/
LOS ALAMOS-SANDOVAL-SANTA FE-RIO ARRIBA-TAOS-
300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHWESTERN TAOS...
SOUTHEASTERN RIO ARRIBA...NORTHWESTERN SANTA FE...EAST CENTRAL
SANDOVAL AND LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3638 10589 3623 10569 3577 10631 3587 10642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 224DEG 44KT 3587 10629

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CHALLENGING AND DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT OF IFR AND MVFR DUE TO PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOUND AT TCC AND LVS BUT CANT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION EVEN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TERMINALS DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS IN
PLACE. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECAST
SET. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE TO THE STORMS...WIND GUSTS WILL
VARY PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY BUT MOST OF THE READINGS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 35 KT UNDER THE MORE GENERAL WIND REGIME. FORECASTING
THE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS WILL ALSO
BE TRICKY AT TIMES BUT SHOULD GO FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST AS TIME PROGRESSES. DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO BE SQUIRRELY
THERE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012...
BUSY MORNING ALREADY...AND VERY ACTIVE DAY ON TAP. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL JET. SUSPECT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY. STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LINING OUT ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL...BUT IF IT PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING...IT MAY
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION IS BLOSSOMING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. ADDITIONALLY...A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM.  TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS A RESULT...THE AREA HAS BECOME QUITE
STABLE. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS WARM AIR RIDES OVER THE
BOUNDARY. INITIALLY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH THUNDER IN THIS
AREA...BUT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT/RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
AREA DESTABILIZES...THUNDER SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT.

DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO SOUTHWEST NM THIS AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST. AS MIXING OCCURS...35-40KT 700 MB
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL ISSUE A LOW END
WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE
FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH A SPORADIC STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO HAVE A LONG DURATION WIND
EVENT.

THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F. PACIFIC
AND BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL BE FOCI FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING...OR RE-STARTING...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. AGAIN...A
BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
DIURNAL BACKING AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ...THUS THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

STORMS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS DRY SLOT SLAMS THROUGH NM.  TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS.  OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS THAT
WILL REDEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...FAVORING THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WETTING RAINS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AS WELL TODAY
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH OVER INCH OR LARGER HAIL AND 65 MPH WIND GUSTS. TO
FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PRESSING
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN EAST CANYON WIND IS
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY.

SOME SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ABOVE NINE OR TEN THOUSAND FEET.
RH RECOVERIES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...RAPID DRYING
WILL SURGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. NW FLOW STILL SHOULD RULE THE AREA WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...SO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ARE FORECAST.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MONDAY WHILE
SOME AFTERNOON NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505>508-521-523-524-529.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
700 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NMZ501>540-131200-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UNION COUNTY-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
700 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CLAYTON TO ROSWELL THROUGH THIS EVENING. GOLFBALL SIZE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM GALLUP TO DULCE. THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS AREA ARE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NMZ504-511-121945-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
1258 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA AND
CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

AT 1254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF TORREON NAVAJO MISSION...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTH OF CUBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JEMEZ SPRINGS...JEMEZ STATE
MONUMENT AND FENTON LAKE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 10689 3580 10657 3566 10704 3584 10707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 243DEG 19KT 3577 10697

CA