Wind Advisory 17, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WITH MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL MT THROUGH NCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...ISOLD/SCT TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME AND AFFECT NERN WY AND NWRN SD. SEVERE PARAMETERS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS SMALL.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...WITH LOWS NEAR 80 IN PARTS OF OUR ERN
ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL RACE
EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR WRN ZONES IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH OUR
ERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON. WILL END THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS
NWRN SD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT KEEP GOING FOR SCNTRL SD THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD
SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THAT AREA DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO WRN SD.

THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST
WITH IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON ANY PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

EXTENDED...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     BENNETT-JACKSON-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR HAAKON-
     NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PERKINS-ZIEBACH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUTTE-HAAKON-
     HARDING-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-
     PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-ZIEBACH.

WY...NONE.
&&

JOHNSON/CALDERON

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