Tornado Warning 24, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
CO ON SATURDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED OVER THE GFS.

A 130-KT 300-MB JET WILL PLACE THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OVER THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE EVENTUAL LINEAR MCS PER SPC
OUTLOOK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 06Z...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ALL PRECIPITA-
TION EXCEPT FOR NERN WY/FAR WRN SD WHICH WILL BE NEAR/UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND IN AN AREA OF Q-G ASCENT. SREF PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE VERY HIGHEST PARTS OF THE BLKHLS
AFTER 06Z. ON FRIDAY IT WILL BE VERY WINDY AGAIN...COVERING NEARLY
ALL OF THE CWA AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
OF THE DRY SLOT. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
SD PLAINS. A DUST ADVISORY ALSO WILL BE NEEDED FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY
WY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATER
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS...WITH EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW AFTER 06Z SATURDAY IN THE HIGHEST BLKHLS
(RELATIVE TO THE PROBABILITIES TNGT). ON SATURDAY THE CWA WILL BE
IN-BETWEEN TWO MAIN AREAS OF ENERGY...ONE OVER ND AND THE OTHER
OVER CO. FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS. ECMWF/GFS FROM
12Z TODAY ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING SECOND
CLOSED MID TROPOSHPERIC LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE GFS
TRACK...GIVING US A LITTLE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION. BOTH
MODELS CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROF IN THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A GOOD BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER
MONTANA 12Z THURSDAY. MID EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS FAST WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE U.S. HIGHEST POPS ARE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE LOW ALOFT AND THEN MOSTLY DECLINING
POPS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AFTER A COOL SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT END OF EXTENDED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH INDICATIONS OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SQUALL LINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. APART FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY...AND IN
ADDITION THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE 20-30 DEWPOINT AIR MIXES DOWN UNDER-
NEATH THE DRY SLOT. THIS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER DEVIATIONS ARE 150-200 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE...BUT WITH 40-50 KT STORM MOTIONS DO NOT EXPECT A FLOOD
THREAT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED (1) OVER NWRN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN WY NEAREST THE DEFORMA-
TION ZONE AND (2) OVER SCNTRL SD WHERE SOME TRAINING STORMS COULD
OCCUR. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE NWRN CWA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SOUTH
     CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BENNETT-HAAKON-
     JACKSON-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-
     PERKINS-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     FRIDAY FOR BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-
     JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO
     PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE
     CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MELLETTE-TODD-
     TRIPP.

WY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM....BARBER
AVIATION...BARBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
957 AM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-071300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
957 AM MDT (1057 AM CDT) THU OCT 6 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONGER WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

BUNKERS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
610 PM MDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             10 NE MARCUS            44.77N 102.12W
10/06/2011  M1.00 INCH       MEADE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KCLARK