Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY FLOW IS STARTING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. ROUND OF SHORT
WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
ONE NOW COMING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE
TRIED TO DEVELOP ALREADY OVER THE BLKHLS...THOUGH HAVE BEEN WEAK AND
SHORT LIVED SO FAR.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTERLY PROGRESSION. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SWITCH SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY BRINGING IN
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...WITH THE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SODAK
(1-2.5 KJ/KG). SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...THOUGH STILL SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO BE THE KEY THREATS. ALSO...FORECAST STORM MOTION FOR RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS IS ADVERTISED TO BE 5-10KTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL START SLIDING INTO THE AREA EARLY...AND
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN/ERN
CWFA. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO EXPECT STORMS TO
REMAIN TAME. TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF.

FOR WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK
RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE NWRN CWFA
OVERNIGHT WITH MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH THURS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT-
NORTHEASTERN WY...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SD...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SD FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE...WITH A LITTLE COOLDOWN MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVR SOUTH CNTRL SD WL ERODE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SCT CUMULUS CLDS HAV INCRSD OVR BLK HLS AND NERN WY...AND
TSTMS WL DVLP LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW. SOME MVFR CIGS
WL MOV ACRS NERN WY DURG THE EARLY MRNG BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1150 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1150 AM MDT (1250 PM CDT) MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO WALL TO PHILIP. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EACH DAY
OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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