Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
335 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOCAL
RADAR HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROF AXIS INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY BY TONIGHT WHILE UPPER TROF AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS LIFTS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY
MIDDAY WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH WAVE TIMING WILL BE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST. AT ANY RATE...STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER...WHERE CAPE VALUES OF ~1.5-3 KJ/KG ARE EXPECTED.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE QUITE HIGH (30-50 KTS) SO SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND EXPECTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR SRN CWA COULD SUPPORT A TORNADIC STORM IN
THE AFT/EARLY EVE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. TROF AXIS WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA...WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY...INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY WILL LIFT THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY EXCEPT NEAR TSRA
WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1045 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-261300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1045 AM MDT (1145 AM CDT) SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM FAITH TO BELLE FOURCHE TO GILLETTE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH THERE WILL
ALSO BE A MINIMAL TORNADIC THREAT IN THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR MONDAY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

SDZ001-260930-
HARDING SD-
250 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARDING COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM MDT...

AT 246 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF CAMP CROOK...OR 26 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LADNER...
  LUDLOW...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

HELGESON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
253 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

SDZ030-031-041>044-074-261000-
BENNETT SD-CUSTER CO PLAINS SD-FALL RIVER SD-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS
SD-JACKSON SD-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS SD-SHANNON SD-
253 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FALL RIVER...EASTERN
CUSTER...SOUTHERN PENNINGTON...WESTERN BENNETT...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON
AND SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM MDT...

AT 251 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RED SHIRT TO
MANDERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MARTIN...
  MANDERSON...
  WOUNDED KNEE...
  PORCUPINE...
  ROCKYFORD...
  SHARPS CORNER...
  SCENIC...
  BATESLAND...
  KYLE...
  SWETT...
  ALLEN...
  POTATO CREEK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

HELGESON