Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CAN
BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THIS DIRECTION AND REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY NICE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION AND MOVING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
OVER PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MY POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING IS CALLING FOR THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE WEST.

BY TOMORROW THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT
TO THE WEST AND NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THAT HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...BUT THE MODELS DID NOT DO A VERY GOOD JOB FOR
TODAY SINCE THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDED A HIGH SO FAR OF 108
DEGS. SO...FOR SATURDAY I HAVE A HIGH JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE TUCSON AREA...BUT MEETING OR EXCEEDING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA
COUNTY...AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT MY CONFIDENCE IN HOW HOT IT WILL BE IS
NOT HIGH...SO WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SINCE
THEY WILL HAVE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TO PERHAPS SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS
ISSUE.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST AND PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL BE 7 TO
10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND CONTINUING
THRU 27/06Z. FEW-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKC-FEW 10-12K FT AFT
27/06Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU LATE MORNING
SATURDAY OR 27/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO
       6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ501-502-505.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
308 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

AZZ510>515-270600-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
308 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE NOTE THAT EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER RECENT BURN AREAS CAN
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE NOTE THAT EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER
RECENT BURN AREAS CAN RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ503-504-506>509-270600-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
308 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-505-280100-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
308 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY...

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 110 TO 115 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE TOHONO O'ODHAM
NATION. PERSONS WORKING OUTDOORS...THE ELDERLY AND PERSONS WITH
HEALTH RELATED ISSUES THAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY THE HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID BECOMING OVERHEATED.
REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER PHXNPWTWC OR
WMO HEADER WWUS75.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
513 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

AZZ504>506-270115-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK
AZ-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-TUCSON
METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
513 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  UNTIL 615 PM MST...

SPOTTERS REPORTED A LOCALIZED AREA OF BLOWING DUST

AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MARANA...ELOY...AVRA VALLEY...RED ROCK...
PICACHO PEAK...PICACHO...FRIENDLY CORNERS AND DOVE MOUNTAIN.

EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITES DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

IN ADDITION...BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...CAUSING
ACCIDENTS THAT MAY INVOLVE CHAIN COLLISIONS AND MULTIPLE PILEUPS. IF
DENSE DUST IS OBSERVED BLOWING ACROSS A ROADWAY...PULL YOUR VEHICLE
OFF THE PAVEMENT AS FAS AS POSSIBLE TO STOP. TURN OFF THE LIGHTS...
SET THE EMERGENCY BRAKE...AND TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL TO
ENSURE BRAKE LIGHTS ARE NOT ILLUMINATED

LAT...LON 3284 11142 3247 11101 3234 11138 3270 11175
      3277 11159 3284 11152

CS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
649 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

AZZ503-504-507-513-270230-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
649 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHEASTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MST...

AT 642 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENSON...OR 23 MILES EAST
OF GREEN VALLEY...NEAR EMPIRE MOUNTAIN...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VAIL...CORONA DE TUCSON AND
MADERA CANYON.

LAT...LON 3151 11050 3176 11096 3208 11073 3204 11046
      3166 11047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 110DEG 12KT 3184 11065

CS