Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1045 AM MST THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT...
THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
THE TOHONO NATION AND NEAR THE HUACHUCA MTNS. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS
VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST AS THE 11/12Z GFS/NAM AND 11/09Z SREF WERE SIMILAR WITH
REGARD TO DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 11/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING DEPICTED AND ENVIRONMENT THAT WAS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...STEERING FLOW
HAS CHANGED TO MORE-SELY VERSUS WED MORNING. THUS...SHOWERS/TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO ADVANCE FURTHER NWWD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY AND WRN PIMA COUNTY VERSUS WED. PLEASE
REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
DETAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OVER COCHISE COUNTY. SO ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECTING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT THERE AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH POPS 40 PCT IN THE TUCSON
METRO AREA. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND...BUT ENOUGH WILL
LINGER TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST...AS INHERITED FORECAST HANDLES THE ABOVE VERY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA ACROSS SE AZ THRU 18Z FRIDAY. THE
BULK OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD/SWD. MVFR CIGS/
VSBYS...MTNS OBSCD...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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