Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL
GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CURRENTLY OVER SE AZ WILL PROVIDE
HEATING TO HELP LIFT MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A.K.A. PW...VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES ON 12Z SOUNDING AND
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PW IMAGERY. THIS IMAGERY ALONG
WITH WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOW BEST MOISTURE FROM TUCSON S AND W WITH
EASTERN AREAS A LITTLE DRIER.  300 MB STREAMLINES AND 12Z NAM
INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVER AREA
TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE VENTING OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.

BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...GOING FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING MOST FAVORED
AREAS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST U OF A
NAM WRF.  IN ADDITION...STORM PREDICTION CENTER ASSESSMENT OF
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL GIVEN MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO APPEARS ON
TRACK.  THEREFORE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT 18
HOURS MAY BE TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES INTO LIKELY CATEGORY AS INDICATED
BY LATEST NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...KD

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING
THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS VICINITY STRONGER TSRA.
OTHERWISE SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. PRECIP TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. OTHERWISE...A NORMAL DIURNAL WIND REGIME AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NRN
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU FRI.
MOISTURE TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-FRI. UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED VIA THE
05/00Z GFS/ECMWF TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION BY NEXT MON. MEANWHILE...TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ENCROACH UPON THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF THE STATE
MAY SEE A DOWNTURN IN MOISTURE...NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO OCCUR
TODAY-MON...BF

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1147 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2011

AZZ501>515-060600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1147 AM MST TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING OVER AND NEAR WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND MAY
CONTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. EVEN MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREAS SEVERELY
BURNED BY WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1234 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2011

AZZ503-513-052015-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1234 PM MST TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM MST...

AT 1231 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF NOGALES...MOVING WEST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOGALES...TUBAC...PATAGONIA
LAKE...RIO RICO...PENA BLANCA LAKE AND TUMACACORI.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3139 11127 3152 11116 3167 11105 3141 11066
      3133 11071 3133 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 112DEG 24KT 3136 11081

KD