Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tucson, AZ

043 
WWUS55 KTWC 072231
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
331 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZC019-072300-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-110807T2300Z/
PIMA AZ-
331 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 324 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVEN FALLS...OR 11 
MILES NORTHEAST OF TUCSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER NEAR CATALINA HIGHWAY AND HOUGHTON 
MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH FROM THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM 
IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY...IT IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS 
TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

LAT...LON 3215 11046 3216 11112 3250 11103 3251 11069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 325DEG 11KT 3228 11076

$$

912 
WWUS55 KTWC 072259
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
359 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZC019-072306-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-110807T2300Z/
PIMA AZ-
359 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST...

ALTHOUGH THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
REMAINS STRONG...IT HAS FALLEN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM MST.

HOWEVER...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

LAT...LON 3215 11046 3216 11112 3250 11103 3251 11069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 325DEG 11KT 3221 11071

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD DEVELOPMENT ON SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY ONCE THE
SUN WAS ABLE TO DO ITS WORK AS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP ABOVE 1.6 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 60S. SO MUCH SO
THAT DEBRIS DRIFTING OVERHEAD FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION IS BEING
JOINED BY ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...GREATLY DIMINISHING SOLAR
INSOLATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL AT LEAST SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT AREAS THAT GET SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BUSY
ENOUGH. NOT MUCH FLOW WITH LITTLE ACTUAL STORM MOVEMENT...JUST
PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOWS AND BUILDING INTO FAVORABLE POCKETS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT. A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS.

OTHERWISE THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT INHIBIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
VERY GOOD THUNDERSTORM DAYS TO START THE WEEK WOULD BE THE FACT THAT
THE HIGH LOOKS LIKE ITS RECONSOLIDATING ALONG THE LOWER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS TO
INHIBIT USE OF AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK FLOW TO LIMIT
LARGER SCALE IMPORTATION OF REINFORCING MOISTURE. AN IMPULSE COULD
ASSIST WITH SOUTHERLY SURGE POSSIBILITIES THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL SOME OF THE COMPONENTS ARE THERE FOR A STRONG ACTIVE
WEEK...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 6-8KFT AGL THRU 05Z MONDAY...
WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA PERSISTING THRU 03Z MONDAY. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...MTN TOPS OBSCD...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BETWEEN 03Z-07Z MONDAY...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 15Z MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
810 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZZ501>515-081400-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
810 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE RECENT
BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
OVER RECENT BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON