Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tucson, AZ

049 
WWUS55 KTWC 072149
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
249 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZC019-023-072215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-110807T2215Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
249 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES...

AT 242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF 
GREEN VALLEY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 11110 3188 11085 3169 11102 3174 11121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 209DEG 2KT 3184 11097

$$

MEYER

378 
WWUS55 KTWC 072209
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
309 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZC019-023-072218-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-110807T2215Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
309 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MST...

AT 308 PM MST THE THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHEAST OF GREEN VALLEY HAD 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED TOWARD SAHUARITA AND VAIL. ADDITIONAL 
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 
2 HOURS.

LAT...LON 3199 11110 3188 11085 3169 11102 3174 11121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 209DEG 2KT 3185 11096

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD DEVELOPMENT ON SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY ONCE THE
SUN WAS ABLE TO DO ITS WORK AS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP ABOVE 1.6 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 60S. SO MUCH SO
THAT DEBRIS DRIFTING OVERHEAD FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION IS BEING
JOINED BY ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...GREATLY DIMINISHING SOLAR
INSOLATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL AT LEAST SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT AREAS THAT GET SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BUSY
ENOUGH. NOT MUCH FLOW WITH LITTLE ACTUAL STORM MOVEMENT...JUST
PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOWS AND BUILDING INTO FAVORABLE POCKETS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT. A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS.

OTHERWISE THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT INHIBIT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
VERY GOOD THUNDERSTORM DAYS TO START THE WEEK WOULD BE THE FACT THAT
THE HIGH LOOKS LIKE ITS RECONSOLIDATING ALONG THE LOWER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS TO
INHIBIT USE OF AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK FLOW TO LIMIT
LARGER SCALE IMPORTATION OF REINFORCING MOISTURE. AN IMPULSE COULD
ASSIST WITH SOUTHERLY SURGE POSSIBILITIES THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL SOME OF THE COMPONENTS ARE THERE FOR A STRONG ACTIVE
WEEK...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 6-8KFT AGL THRU 05Z MONDAY...
WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA PERSISTING THRU 03Z MONDAY. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...MTN TOPS OBSCD...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
BETWEEN 03Z-07Z MONDAY...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 15Z MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
810 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

AZZ501>515-081400-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
810 AM MST SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE RECENT
BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL
OVER RECENT BURN AREAS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON