Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

944 
WWUS55 KTWC 030156
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
656 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2011

AZC019-030206-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-110803T0200Z/
PIMA AZ-
656 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM MST...

LAT...LON 3163 11174 3171 11193 3186 11182 3175 11162
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 180DEG 0KT 3172 11178

$$

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE AUG 02 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BRING A STRETCH OF HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS PEAKING AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE STARTING TO WANE A BIT...DEWPTS ARE DOWN 3 TO
6 DEGREES OVER 24 HOURS AGO...MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SO FAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL HANGING IN AROUND 1.3 TO 1.4 OR SO
BUT TRENDS CONTINUE DOWN IN MOST OF OUR PART OF THE STATE. NICE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN MID LEVELS BUT A LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
FROM ABOUT H6 TO H7 OR SO. VERY LITTLE FLOW OR SHEAR. AS EXPECTED WE
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH ANY VALLEY STORMS SO FAR TODAY. MOUNTAIN STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN.

OTHERWISE A LOW GRADE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE ORIENTATION EXTENDING OVERHEAD FROM THE
HIGH CENTER EAST OF US WILL MEAN WEAK FLOW AND WARMISH MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCT CLOUDS 7-12K FT AGL THROUGH 06Z...THEN
CLEARING. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/TS WITH BASES 6-8K FT AGL ALONG
AND EAST OF A NOGALES/TUCSON/GLOBE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MTNS OBSCD.
EXPECT WLY SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. THEREAFTER...NORMAL NIGHTTIME
TRENDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME SFC
WINDS WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TRENDS. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1254 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2011

AZZ501>515-030700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1254 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODERATE RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. MODERATE RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MINNICK/KD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON