Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

059 
WWUS55 KTWC 302219
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
319 PM MST THU JUN 30 2011

AZC003-023-302230-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110630T2230Z/
COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-
319 PM MST THU JUN 30 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SIERRA VISTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 11039 3164 11017 3139 11036 3158 11058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 247DEG 6KT 3154 11030

$$

JJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST THU JUN 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEBRIS CLOUDS
MOSTLY OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES WITH WESTERN EDGE
OVER PORTIONS OF ERN PINAL/PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 9 AM ARE UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...THANKS TO LAST NIGHTS RAIN AND
THE EARLY MORNING EVENT IN TUCSON WHICH ENDED THE 4TH LONGEST NO
RAIN STREAK ON RECORD. UPPER LEVEL PLOTS THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM UTAH SOUTH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THE TAIL
END...ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED IN DEVELOPING THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TUCSON AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTY.

SO WHATS ON TAP FOR LATER TODAY. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST TODAY AND ALSO ADVECT DRIER AIR CURRENTLY SITTING OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE 15Z GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY
SHOWED VALUES BETWEEN 0.80" AND 1.10" EAST OF GLOBE-ELOY-PAPAGO
FARMS WITH DRIER AIR LESS THAN 0.75" WEST OF THIS LINE. WITH THE
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORM TODAY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS EAST OF CLIFTON-SIERRA VISTA
LINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR MOVING IN TODAY WILL KEEP AREAS FROM KTUS WWD
DRY WITH ISOLD -TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE STILL FOR KDUG AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR WEST AS KOLS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ABOVE 7K
FT AGL WILL BECOME SCT 10-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT UP TO 35 KTS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH
TODAY...THE MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE
ISOLATED AND GENERALLY ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND
COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE
DAILY CYCLE OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MODERATING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION GETS
INTO A MORE ESTABLISHED MONSOON PATTERN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON