Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tucson, AZ

896 
WWUS55 KTWC 230152
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
652 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

AZC019-230215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110723T0215Z/
PIMA AZ-
652 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST 
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...OR ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE  
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION...

AT 644 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR VAYA CHIN...OR JUST EAST OF HICKIWAN NORTHWEST OF SELLS. THIS 
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES OR LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 11213 3229 11260 3248 11247 3248 11206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 044DEG 2KT 3235 11230

$$

675 
WWUS55 KTWC 230209
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
709 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

AZC019-230218-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110723T0215Z/
PIMA AZ-
709 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY OR 
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION WILL EXPIRE AT 
715 PM MST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD 
DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 

LAT...LON 3219 11213 3229 11260 3248 11247 3248 11206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 044DEG 2KT 3234 11231

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH COVERING MUCH
OF THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF ARIZONA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST THROUGH NEW MEXICO...SRN ARIZONA AND
PORTIONS OF BAJA...ALBEIT WEAK THIS FAR WEST. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WITH
MODELS INDICATING THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ERODING...WITH RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT SOME
EXTENDING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST COCHISE AND
SOUTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. ISOLATED CELLS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY AND IN
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EAST OF SELLS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STORMS BECOMING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONTINUING SURGE OF MOISTURE UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DORA APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA. A SURGE OF MOISTURE ALREADY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA WITH YUMA REPORTING A DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER 50S AT 12Z BUT
INCREASING TO 64 DEGS BY 13Z AS THE WINDS PICKED UP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE KYUX RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW 15 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FT. IN ADDITION TO THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL HIGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RESULTING IN A LONG EASTERLY
FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WELL. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ENTIRE COLUMN NEARLY SATURATED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT THIS
WEEKEND AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FAR WESTERN DESERTS AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES STORMS FARTHER WEST
AND LINGERING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW END SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
NEAR NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THRU 06Z
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF STRONGER TSRA. PRECIP TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF 06Z-12Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE BEST
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. STRONG...
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
EXHIBIT TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

AZZ503>515-230600-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
942 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF AREAS THAT ARE
NORMALLY PRONE TO FLOODING. EVEN MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREAS SEVERELY BURNED BY WILDFIRES COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-230600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
942 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45
TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON