Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Tucson, AZ

852 
WWUS55 KTWC 240048
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
548 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

AZC019-240100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-110824T0100Z/
PIMA AZ-
548 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 540 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. OTHER 
LOCATIONS IN THIS WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAHUARITA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 11113 3191 11122 3203 11118 3204 11085
      3175 11078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 125DEG 17KT 3189 11101

$$

BF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK ALONG WITH HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC UNMODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT
OF 1.38 INCHES...A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 8 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 3000
J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=105;TD=51 YIELDS A LIFTED INDEX
OF MINUS 4 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 940 J/KG IF LIFTING THE PARCEL FROM
THE SURFACE AND A MINUS 3 LIFTED INDEX AND A CAPE OF AROUND 640 IF
LIFTING THE PARCEL USING THE MEAN TEMP METHOD. WITH THAT SAID...THE
INHERITED POP FORECAST OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DESERTS/VALLEYS AND LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS LOOKS GOOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS BAJA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST SONORA MEXICO THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS ALSO
FORMED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEAR THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY WITH THE
ACTIVITY DRIFTING TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND EAST AND ITS ORIENTATION IS MORE WEST TO EAST FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS TO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO DEVELOP THAT WILL USHER IN HIGHER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH POSSIBLY ENHANCING ACTIVITY IN THE
PROCESS.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH GETS SHUNTED
TO THE SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CLD BASES 12-15KFT AGL WITH SCT CIRRUS ABOVE. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE MTNS THROUGH AROUND 04Z WITH LOWER CEILINGS
NEAR TSRA. SFC WND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT PK WND NEAR 45KTS
WITH A FEW TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS DAILY RECORD HIGH/YEAR FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS SE AZ.

                WEDNESDAY    THURSDAY
               8/24 RCRD   8/25 RCRD
               HIGH/YEAR   HIGH/YEAR
AJO            111/1985    109/2010
ORGAN PIPE     114/1985    111/1985
PICACHO PEAK   109/2010    111/2001
TUCSON         108/1985    106/2002
SAFFORD        104/1985    105/1953
WILLCOX        101/2010    101/2002
SIERRA VISTA    99/1985     97/2002
DOUGLAS        100/1994    100/2002

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ501-502-505.
  HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MST WED FOR AZZ501-502-505.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1158 AM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

AZZ510>515-241900-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1158 AM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST STORMS. KEEP IN MIND THAT
EVEN MODERATE RAINFALL OVER RECENT BURN AREAS CAN RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ503-504-506>509-241900-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
1158 AM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS RANGING 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-505-241900-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
1158 AM MST TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM TODAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MST TO 7 PM MST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MST TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON