Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

751 
WWUS55 KTWC 042226
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZC003-019-042235-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110704T2230Z/
COCHISE AZ-PIMA AZ-
326 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND WEST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST...

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. HOWEVER...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HALF 
HOUR.

LAT...LON 3195 11060 3229 11063 3223 11013 3205 11013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 088DEG 16KT 3213 11044

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GETTING RATHER BUSY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED WITH
STRONG STORMS GENERATING WET MICROBURSTS. HEAVY SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE CWA...A BIT LESS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...A BIT
MORE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA COUNTIES.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
BEFORE TRIGGERS INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTION
ACROSS PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON PROBABLY ENHANCED BY OUTFLOWS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA
IN MEXICO WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER INTO PORTIONS OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...AND PIMA COUNTIES INCLUDING AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN ONLY DO SO MUCH...SO
WE MIGHT SHUT DOWN EARLIER TONIGHT AFTER WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE A
WIDESPREAD BUSY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PRIME TIME WILL BE
22Z TO 03Z FOR THE GREATER TUCSON AREA...FOLLOWED BY OUTFLOWS
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT BUT LOOSING PUNCH AS THEY
MOVE INTO BUSY AREAS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.

AFTER THAT THE FLOW REMAINS GOOD FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. NEW MEXICO IS
A LITTLE DRY SO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE STATE LINE WILL SEE
THE LEAST...BUT OVERALL BETWEEN IMPORTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND RECIRCULATING WHAT WE NOW HAVE IN PLACE THE SUMMER
THUNDERSTORM SEASON IS HERE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY DIG A TROUGH
NEAR THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND...THIS MIGHT NUDGE SOME OF THE
MOISTURE OUT OF PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE STATE BUT AS FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WE SHOULD KEEP SOME STORMS AROUND UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA OVER SANTA CRUZ..PIMA AND PINAL
COUNTIES...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH STORM MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS. VISIBILITIES NEAR TSRA 2-5 SM IN RAIN AT TIMES.
TSRA CIGS BKN030-BKN050 WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED. WIND GUSTS OF
40-45 KTS VICINITY TSRA. STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 07Z TODAY WITH
SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING. SURFACE WIND THRU 10-22Z MONDAY SLY/SELY 5-15
KTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
MAINLY AT KTUS AND KOLS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING SIMILAR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LATE
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDING BY MIDNIGHT. A NORMAL DIURNAL WIND REGIME
WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
AIR...THEN NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE MONSOON NUDGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1127 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZZ501>515-051830-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1127 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR WETTER STORMS TODAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOVEMENT INTO SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWER
TODAY...TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT AND EVEN
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME
STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THIS
WEEK MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALL OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN LIGHTNING AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. EVEN MODERATE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREAS SEVERELY BURNED BY WILDFIRES WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON