Heat Advisory 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING RECORDS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE AS HOT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT. THEN EVEN HOTTER NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS NEARLY OVERHEAD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH CLOSER
UP THE SIERRA MADRES INTO SONORA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. PROBABLY WILL END UP TRANSITIONING INTO A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL NON-MOUNTAIN ZONES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT IN A FEW LOCATIONS (MAINLY SITES
WITH LESS EXTENSIVE CLIMATE HISTORIES).

STILL RATHER DRY AS SURFACE DEWPTS RUN IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS
MORNING AND DEWPTS CONTINUE NEAR OR UNDER 1/3 OF AN INCH. THE HIGH
POSITION SHOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE SIERRA MADRES
BECOMING ACTIVE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THE RIDGE WILL REALLY BE IN MORE
OF A BLOCKING POSITION FOR LATITUDES THIS FAR NORTH HOWEVER...WITH
POSSIBLE LIMITED MOISTURE SEEPING IN NEAR THE BORDER OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST WE CAN REALLY HOPE FOR AT THIS POINT WITH THAT
HOWEVER IS ISOLATED MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WITH A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
DEEPENING...THE RIDGE SHOULD HAVE GOOD ROOM TO STRENGTHEN JUST EAST
OF US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG NET GAIN IN HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO EVEN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
THAT THE HIGH CENTER WOULD RECONSOLIDATE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO START TO IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLR SKIES THRU 21Z WEDNESDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
ARE EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE
WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...AND SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS THRU THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

ALSO...SMOKE FROM THE THREE MAJOR WILDFIRES...WALLOW...MONUMENT AND
HORSESHOE 2...WILL LIKELY RESTRICT LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS
ONE MILE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THOSE
FIRES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. EXPECT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR AND CONTINUED DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A LIMITED
MOISTURE INCREASE IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA MADRAS
IN MEXICO...OTHERWISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW.

OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AZZ501-502-505.

  EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
   EVENING FOR AZZ501-502-505.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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