Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE... ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. INTERMITTENT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE LATER
THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA IS EXPERIENCING GENERAL CLEARING WHICH SHOULD GET US TO
FORECAST AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS. HEATING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD... POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST...
INCLUDING POPS... CONTINUES TO APPEAR ON TRACK. THERE WILL BE NO
UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KBVO ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE KMLC/KFSM/KFYV/KXNA TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
WITH THE HELP OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS MORNING...MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH
THE AID OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BECOME
RATHER UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE
THE CONCERN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE AID OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1248 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS... WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... WITH THE
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

OKZ060-067-182115-
TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
340 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 339 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BIXBY...MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE... SOUTH TULSA...LIBERTY...LEONARD...
BIXBY...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA AND
ONETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3616 9563 3613 9560 3614 9559 3588 9551
      3586 9601 3596 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 250DEG 27KT 3595 9586

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

ARZ001-OKZ063-182130-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
403 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE

AT 403 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COLCORD...WEST SILOAM
SPRINGS...FAIRMOUNT...SILOAM SPRINGS...GENTRY...
GALLITIN...SPRINGTOWN...CHEROKEE CITY AND NATURAL FALLS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3642 9452 3618 9437 3616 9465 3616 9476
      3625 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 249DEG 20KT 3622 9469