Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HISTORIC HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW/EXTREMELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY
IN POCKET OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME BRIEF
LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER ON
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AT THIS POINT...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES.

UPPER HIGH STILL FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EACH DAY. GENERALLY
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW AND THUS TRENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN MUCH BETTER OF LATE. ALSO EXTENDED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER
IF FORECAST CONTINUES AS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 107  80 105 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   79 109  79 105 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   80 110  82 107 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   76 105  76 105 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   75 102  75 100 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   78 100  75  98 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   78 108  80 104 /  20  20  20  20
MIO   76 103  75 101 /  30  20  20  20
F10   76 109  80 106 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   81 108  79 107 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...RECORD-BREAKING HEATWAVE CONTINUES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
EXTREME RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 110 TO 117 DEGREES. WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WILL KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF THE HIGHS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH 120 DEGREES NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.

ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH
RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LATER TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
	   DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
	             POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK TO
ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND A FRONT WILL TRY TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 105 TO 115 RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL BE TRENDING DOWN INTO THE
105 TO 110 RANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OCCURS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

OKZ076-032100-
LE FLORE OK-
330 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 330 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3451 9464 3461 9463 3470 9446 3470 9445
      3455 9445 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 078DEG 5KT 3458 9448