Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW. DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE... HAVE USED VCTS TONIGHT IN
ALL TAFS TO CONVEY THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT A SITE COULD BE
AFFECTED. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN ALL
TAFS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEFINED UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WITH SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND BOTH TONIGHTS
CONVECTION AND TOMORROWS EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY PLAYERS
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL A GIVEN FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT PARTS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS. FORT SMITH
COULD BREAK ITS CURRENT 8 DAY STREAK OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW. PRECIP AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE COULD
COUNTERBALANCE THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO STILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES SO WILL LEAVE HEAT HEADLINES
ALONE AT THIS POINT.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCES OF EVEN THAT DECREASING WITH TIME
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING
THAT POTENTIAL FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE VERY HOT AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING 105+ HIGHS. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL
DEFINITELY BE REQUIRED INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH CONCERNS
OVER TOMORROWS TEMPERATURES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WHAT KIND OF
HEADLINE TO ISSUE...WILL LET THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS EVALUATE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ068-OKZ069.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OTHERWISE THE HEAT
   CONTINUES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT
WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEE /OKCNPWTSA/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND DANGEROUS HEAT
                             POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
AROUND 110 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE RELIEF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E SUMMIT              35.67N 95.40W
07/12/2011  M73 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   ASOS

            MEASURED BY THE MUSKOGEE ASOS.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

OKZ068-070-072-130115-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 735 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GORE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...GORE...BRAGGS...
WEBBERS FALLS AND GREENLEAF STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3579 9522 3576 9500 3547 9508 3550 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 191DEG 16KT 3557 9517

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
737 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

OKZ066-070-071-073-074-130130-
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
737 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...MCINTOSH AND NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE

AT 737 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VERNON TO LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...ENTERPRISE...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...
EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...HANNA...VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...
ONAPA...PIERCE...HITCHITA...RENTIESVILLE...INDIANOLA...CANADIAN...
COUNCIL HILL...WARNER...OKTAHA...KEEFETON AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE
PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3564 9530 3524 9526 3512 9603 3514 9602
      3516 9599 3529 9599 3530 9598 3537 9598
      3538 9604 3550 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 237DEG 11KT 3521 9592 3539 9559

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