Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR AN APPARENT MID LEVEL WAVE
SHOWING UP IN THE PROFILER/VAD WIND NETWORK OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
HOT AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AND WILL THUS LEAVE OUT POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS 18Z NAM NOW INDICATES POSSIBILITY OF THIS
MOVING TOWARD FAR NE OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHILE ISOLATED POP UP STORMS
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE TERRAIN. PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND RELATIVE
WEAKNESS IN UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE
FOR THE FOURTH...BUT POPS REMAIN MODEST. WILL ALSO KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OF DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKELY TUESDAY.

ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DRIVE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL SURGE TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
WEST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
FRONT STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WITH TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL. BOTH ECMWF/GFS
REBUILD 500MB HEIGHTS NEXT WEEKEND IMPLYING RETURN OF HOT WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   76 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   73 101  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   70  97  71  97 /  10  20  20  20
FYV   69  95  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   69  94  71  92 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   72  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   72  97  73  95 /  10  20  20  20
F10   73  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   72 100  73  98 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORMS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 104 DEGREES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER ORGANIZED THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL.

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

ARZ011-022130-
MADISON AR-
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL MADISON

AT 400 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WITTER...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...WITTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3583 9371 3587 9384 3596 9378 3594 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 026DEG 1KT 3589 9376

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

ARZ011-022200-
MADISON AR-
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN MADISON

AT 419 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR KINGSTON
TO WITTER TO JUST NORTH OF SAINT PAUL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS NEAR
STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WEATHERS...PETTIGREW...AURORA...KINGSTON...DUTTON...BOSTON
AND WITTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3579 9359 3586 9386 3613 9357 3607 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 104DEG 4KT 3605 9355

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

ARZ020-022230-
FRANKLIN AR-
447 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL FRANKLIN

AT 447 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JETHRO...
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...LONELM...CRAVENS...JETHRO AND FERN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3555 9384 3552 9402 3555 9403 3557 9403
      3558 9404 3566 9405 3566 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 085DEG 11KT 3561 9391

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

ARZ011-022245-
MADISON AR-
501 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL MADISON

AT 459 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR
HINDSVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO JUST EAST OF WITTER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...HARMONY...GEORGETOWN...WEATHERS...HUNTSVILLE...AURORA...WES
LEY...HINDSVILLE...WITTER AND JAPTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3584 9361 3603 9394 3618 9391 3611 9364
      3594 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 046DEG 6KT 3604 9373