Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND DECAYING FRONT SOUTH OF I-40.
ONGOING CONVECTION  MCCURTAIN COUNTY EXPECTED TO EXPAND
WEST IN AGITATED CU FIELD. MINIMAL GFS / WRF BASED POPS
FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN TSA FORECAST AREA UNREALISTIC. GFS
AND WRF ALSO BOTH INITIATE KS MCS OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WRF
KEEPS MCS ACTION IN KS OVERNIGHT GFS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. AND ECMWF KEEPS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY SAVE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE RED RIVER.   BROAD BRUSH 30 POPS
APPLIED WITH 20 POPS WEDNESDAY AM.

DAYTIME TEMPS  WEDNESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON PRECIP AND
CLOUD THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HEAT WATCH CONTINUED.  IF
CLOUDS ARE NOT A FACTOR...MAX TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW.  BY
THURSDAY...JUST FLAT OUT HOT. 850 TEMPS NOT UNLIKE TUES.
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  99  80 103 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   75  97  78 101 /  30  20   0   0
MLC   73  98  78 101 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   72  96  76 101 /  30  20   0   0
FYV   70  93  72  96 /  30  20   0   0
BYV   70  92  73  95 /  30  20   0   0
MKO   74  97  76 100 /  30  20   0   0
MIO   73  96  76 100 /  30  20   0   0
F10   73  98  77 100 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   74  97  76 100 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE... DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH OVERNIGHT RELIEF.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING STORMS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER TO THE REGION...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MEDICAL PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TREAT MORE CASES
OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 AM     HAIL             3 SE EUREKA SPRINGS     36.37N 93.70W
06/28/2011  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL FOR ABOUT 2 MINUTES.

0940 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
06/28/2011  M0.94 INCH       CREEK              OK   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RECORDED 0.94 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN
            HOUR.

1025 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BIXBY                   35.94N 95.88W
06/28/2011  M0.81 INCH       TULSA              OK   MESONET

            MESONET SITE IN BIXBY RECORDED 0.81 INCHES OF RAIN IN
            LESS THAN AN HOUR.

&&

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ049-282115-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 351 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NASHOBA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NASHOBA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3434 9507 3447 9525 3464 9516 3453 9493
      3450 9494 3450 9504 3437 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 293DEG 17KT 3452 9510

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ053-282330-
CHOCTAW OK-
606 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW

AT 606 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT TOWSON TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FROGVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...FROGVILLE...FORT TOWSON...SWINK...
HUSKEY AND RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3387 9542 3411 9526 3399 9515 3394 9515
      3395 9522 3393 9524 3390 9524 3388 9526
      3389 9527 3387 9529 3388 9533 3386 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 000DEG 4KT 3405 9525 3386 9537