Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FLUID.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
615 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO
A LINE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
MORE OF A CONCERN. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ068-130145-
CHEROKEE OK-
819 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

AT 819 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COOKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COOKSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3583 9480 3565 9481 3563 9495 3564 9502
      3570 9502 3584 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 240DEG 22KT 3568 9496

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
821 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   35.49N 93.83W
05/12/2011                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN OZARK

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
823 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
05/12/2011  M3.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL WAS MEASURED AND PHOTO WAS SENT TO KFSM

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
827 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             OZARK                   35.49N 93.83W
05/12/2011  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ073-075-130215-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
842 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 842 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BLANCO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GOWEN...BLANCO...HARTSHORNE AND
HAILEYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3463 9580 3481 9585 3489 9547 3468 9542
      3468 9551 3466 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 259DEG 14KT 3474 9572

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