Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY....AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AHEAD OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN TOWARDS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE
DRY LINE THURSDAY EVENING AND FINALLY PUSH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MOSTLY SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
EXITING THE CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50 FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND BELOW THE NORMAL FOR MID MAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO SPIN OFF THE MAIN TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
AND THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A WEAK
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS MODEL
TRENDS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
452 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR A LIMITED TORNADIC RISK INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...HIGH INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND SEVERITY AS THEY ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS AFTER
6 OR 7 PM. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY WEAKEN
BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG INSTABILITY
BUILDS BY THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONGER AS THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES NEARER
THE REGION.  THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADIC RISK.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
IN VICINITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY.

COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNW INOLA             36.24N 95.56W
05/11/2011  E70 MPH          ROGERS             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
605 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHOUTEAU                36.19N 95.34W
05/11/2011  M60 MPH          MAYES              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW SKIATOOK           36.41N 96.05W
05/11/2011  M76 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W SALLISAW            35.46N 94.81W
05/11/2011  E60 MPH          SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLAREMORE               36.31N 95.62W
05/11/2011  M60 MPH          ROGERS             OK   AWOS

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE CLAREMORE REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

ARZ020-029-120000-
FRANKLIN AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
621 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

AT 620 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF HACKETT TO PATTERSON TO 17 MILES SOUTH
OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...CROSSROADS...MILLTOWN...PATTERSON...ALIX...CHARLESTON...
BRANCH...URSULA...PETER PENDER...VESTA...MEG...DENNING...ALTUS...
HARTFORD...HACKETT...GREENWOOD...BARLING...LAVACA...ARKOLA...
HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE...WASHBURN...
BURNVILLE...EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD...BONANZA...FORT CHAFFEE...JENNY
LIND...RYE HILL...BLOOMER AND CENTRAL CITY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3536 9372 3536 9375 3540 9380 3532 9380
      3531 9391 3523 9392 3522 9402 3513 9403
      3514 9413 3510 9414 3507 9423 3496 9423
      3493 9443 3533 9444 3535 9423 3538 9419
      3547 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 250DEG 35KT 3518 9450 3501 9432
          3475 9432