Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 7, 2011Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at May 7, 2011, 5:19 AM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 11 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2011, 5:19 AM CDT (10:19 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2011, 5:30 AM CDT
In force: 11 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 294 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 7, 2:53 AM CDT, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 2:53 AM CDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 60 TO 70 KTS BEING MEASURED AT 925 ON
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE AREA PROFILER NETWORK. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN TOPEKA AND KANSAS CITY AND
POINTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE MODEL SUITE IS
LARGELY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS OUT OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO BULLISH
WITH THE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...SO WILL AGAIN
DEPICT MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING LOCATED IN CARROLL COUNTY.
WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY TWEAKS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR
TO FINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAYS...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S AND SOME AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 APPROACHING 90. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO
ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 412 BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MID WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PLAINS...BRINGING THE DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAMES STILL APPEAR TO BE PRIME TIME FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HANG ONTO SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT INCONSISTENCY IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE PATTERNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   86  66  90  66 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   87  69  88  71 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   86  64  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   81  63  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   78  62  85  65 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   85  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   83  65  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   88  67  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   88  66  91  70 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 4:34 AM CDT, 45 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 4:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

ARZ001-010-070930-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
406 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 406 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF
HEALING SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROCKY COMFORT...MAYFIELD...LOWELL...
HEALING SPRINGS...CAVE SPRINGS...WAR EAGLE...MONTE NE...LOOKOUT...
VAUGHN...SPRINGDALE...SONORA AND OAK GROVE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3623 9388 3623 9389 3609 9394 3625 9433
      3635 9430 3631 9387 3626 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0906Z 288DEG 34KT 3628 9425

Local storm report, May 7, 4:31 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 7, 4:58 AM CDT, 21 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 7, 5:19 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 4:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	24 min
May 7, 4:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	34 min
May 7, 5:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	15 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.