Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KMLC AND POSSIBLY
KFSM DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH
OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES DURING
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PRIOR TO 06Z
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS THE LLJ EXPANDS NORTHWARD SO WILL THE
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL AFTER 06Z. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AFTER 06Z. ANY SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE LARGE HAIL. TWEAKED HOURLY DEW POINTS AND WINDS ACCORDING TO
LATEST OBS...AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. MIN
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...MID EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH TONIGHTS STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA...AND INTERSECT A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SMALL CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

OKZ049-073-210545-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1216 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1216 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
EUBANKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STANLEY...EUBANKS AND DUNBAR.

LAT...LON 3451 9579 3452 9578 3452 9568 3460 9568
      3469 9551 3469 9546 3452 9533 3432 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 239DEG 29KT 3443 9577

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

OKZ049-075-076-210545-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1217 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN LE FLORE...NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHERN LATIMER

AT 1218 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CLAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WHITESBORO...TALIHINA...CLAYTON...
TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI AND ALBION.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3488 9490 3468 9477 3447 9531 3463 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 241DEG 34KT 3460 9525

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

OKZ049-053-210600-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1225 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1225 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
KENT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOPER...KENT...SPEER...ANTLERS...
DELA...RATTAN...CLOUDY...FINLEY...SNOW AND KELLOND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3401 9569 3415 9583 3417 9580 3417 9579
      3418 9579 3445 9541 3428 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 232DEG 31KT 3414 9567

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

OKZ049-076-210615-
LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1250 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 1250 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NASHOBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NASHOBA...HONOBIA...KIAMICHI AND
ALBION.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3458 9536 3469 9507 3469 9506 3470 9505
      3475 9493 3454 9482 3450 9495 3451 9504
      3448 9503 3441 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 240DEG 33KT 3454 9521

LACY