Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS... BUT
OTHER CHANGES WERE NOT NECESSARY. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL
KS...WITH SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35. CAP
STRENGTH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AHEAD OF DRYLINE...AND HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PONCA CITY TO
STILLWATER SWD TO ARDMORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE PUSHES
SLOWLY E...AND 100+ KT WLY UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHES ACROSS NRN TX.
PRESENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...WELL INTO THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
OF A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN
AR...WHERE STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SEE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...EFFECTIVELY ACCELERATING THE BOUNDARY EWD
INTO WRN AR. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER 3-4 AM AS
COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.

COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH 15-25 MPH WLY/NWLY SFC
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY EXITING UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW
AR. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES
E AND SLY FLOW RETURNS.

UNSETTLED WLY/SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ECMWF/GFS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DRIVING AN UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
UPPED POPS SOME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. VERY WARM PRE-FRONTAL
WEATHER LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO THE 70S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
525 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS DISCRETE SEVERE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE DRYLINE
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MANY OF THESE SUPERCELLS ARE
EXHIBITING STRONG ROTATION AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AT ANY TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES... DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND VERY LARGE HAIL
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING THE TULSA METRO AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD... IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE... WHICH WILL LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT BUT
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL... AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL ALSO CREATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL... HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST PERIODIC HIGH FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1036 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 35.09N 94.35W
04/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SAA

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