Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AND WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE
STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL HELP FUEL A
LIMITED FIRE DANGER MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...BUT ACTIVATION OF THE
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
          HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH...WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AND WILL FUEL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL ALSO
FEATURE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS...CONTINUING THE FIRE
DANGER INTO THESE DAYS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...CAUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP.
THE ATTENDANT DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.

ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

OKZ054-055-191100-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
527 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 527 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BIGHEART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3700 9585 3699 9583 3669 9632 3682 9646
      3700 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 229DEG 25KT 3682 9630

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

OKZ054-055-191130-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
549 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 549 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BIGHEART...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9608 3699 9579 3679 9624 3686 9629
      3701 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 239DEG 19KT 3686 9619