Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM AND INCLUDED ALL THE
KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES OVER TO THE MISSOURI BORDER. THE WORST OF
THE STORMS THUS FAR HAVE REMAINED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE STORMS THAT HAVE
BACKBUILT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND
THE WATCH A COUPLE HOURS.

HAVE ALSO SEEN CONVECTION FIRE DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE
DRYLINE THAT HAS BEGUN AN EASTERN PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED TAME THUS FAR BUT MAY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AT ANY TIME AND IF THEY DO...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED PER COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
WILL EVER FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE TWO
AREAS SEPARATE BUT DOES SHOW A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE DRYLINE AND
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AND
ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 1-2 AM.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TONIGHT TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS
AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM
READINGS AND SUPPORT FROM THE NEW 00Z NAM.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
503 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY
LINE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THESE STORMS MAY CLIP PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRE DANGER WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN MONDAY AS
WINDS SUBSIDE...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. BY FRIDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE RETURNS...WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN AND THE
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ054-280045-
OSAGE OK-
557 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OSAGE

AT 553 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KAY COUNTY
NEAR CHILOCCO.  IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OSAGE COUNTY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA.  THIS IS A SEVERE STORM...AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE STORM WILL STAY JUST OUT OF OSAGE
COUNTY.  BUT ANY CHANGE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COULD REQUIRE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST
OSAGE COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM
CLOSELY...PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL CONDITIONS... AND BE READY TO SEEK
SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3693 9675 3694 9676 3696 9676 3699 9675
      3700 9674 3700 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 247DEG 47KT 3700 9696

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