Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 19, 2011Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 19, 2011, 6:44 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 21 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 19, 2011, 6:44 PM CDT (23:44 UTC)
Expired: Apr 19, 2011, 7:05 PM CDT
In force: 21 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 19, 6:53 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 E Green Forest, AR	MOSTLY DIME TO NICKEL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 9 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 19, 2:16 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2616 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -284 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 583 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 584 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

803 
WUUS54 KTSA 192344
SVRTSA
ARC015-200030-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0090.110419T2344Z-110420T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 639 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
  RUDD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BERRYVILLE...RULE...GREEN FOREST...CARROLLTON...OAK GROVE AND
  ALPENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9357 3620 9361 3626 9361 3626 9363
      3628 9363 3628 9366 3631 9366 3631 9370
      3651 9339 3650 9330 3649 9329 3623 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 240DEG 46KT 3628 9354

$$

2 follow-up statements

164 
WWUS54 KTSA 192354
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ARC015-200030-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-110420T0030Z/
CARROLL AR-
654 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 653 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN
FOREST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...COIN...
ALPENA AND DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 9329 3625 9339 3631 9350 3645 9340
      3650 9330 3649 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 240DEG 46KT 3633 9338

$$

687 
WWUS54 KTSA 200005
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ARC015-200016-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-110420T0030Z/
CARROLL AR-
705 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

LAT...LON 3623 9329 3625 9339 3631 9350 3645 9340
      3650 9330 3649 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 240DEG 46KT 3640 9321

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 19, 6:30 PM CDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 6:30 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING STORMS WILL PASS WESTERN ARKANSAS SITES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY BRUSH FAR NE OKLAHOMA BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR A KJLN-KMKO-KDUA LINE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY
MID-EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING
BACK NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE...
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE MANY FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
PAINTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  67  51  68 /  10  10  50  50
FSM   55  70  54  67 /  40  20  60  50
MLC   54  67  61  76 /  10  10  40  40
BVO   43  65  48  66 /  10  10  40  60
FYV   48  66  51  66 /  40  10  50  50
BYV   45  63  46  64 /  90  10  50  50
MKO   48  68  52  68 /  10  10  50  50
MIO   42  62  47  66 /  10  10  40  60
F10   49  68  55  73 /  10  10  50  50
HHW   59  67  61  77 /  80  20  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 19, 5:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
522 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
                                NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
                                NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO ANTLERS OKLAHOMA
AT 5 PM. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WAS IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 8 PM. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALL LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
                      POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN IS IN PLACE. TODAY'S FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTH BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE FRONT
LIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. AN UPPER WAVE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE
FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. STAY TUNED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 19, 4:37 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             10 WNW EUBANKS          34.48N 95.75W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            2 SOUTH OF DAISY

&&

NMM

Local storm report, Apr 19, 4:38 PM CDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FALLING ON THE UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS CAMPUS.

&&

KAH

Local storm report, Apr 19, 4:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             8 W EUBANKS             34.42N 95.73W
04/19/2011  E2.00 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

0440 PM     HAIL             FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 TO 40 PERCENT OF THE GROUND WAS COVERED. ABOUT 10
            PERCENT OF THE TOTAL HAIL WAS GOLF BALL SIZED.

0445 PM     HAIL             EUREKA SPRINGS          36.40N 93.74W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KAH

Special weather statement, Apr 19, 5:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

OKZ053-192300-
CHOCTAW OK-
501 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW

AT 502 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 27 MILES WEST OF
GAY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...ORD...GRANT...GAY AND GOODLAND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3395 9595 3400 9594 3402 9545 3388 9546
      3388 9548 3389 9552 3388 9554 3393 9556
      3394 9560 3391 9562 3389 9569 3390 9575
      3387 9577 3387 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 263DEG 20KT 3381 9604

Local storm report, Apr 19, 6:19 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 S TALIHINA            34.68N 95.05W
04/19/2011  M2.50 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

&&

PBS

Local storm report, Apr 19, 6:32 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
632 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             MUSE                    34.67N 94.76W
04/19/2011  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 19, 4:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	27 min
Apr 19, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	66 min
Apr 19, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Madison, Washington	56 min
Apr 19, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison	57 min
Apr 19, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	59 min
Apr 19, 5:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison, Washington	25 min
Apr 19, 5:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Carroll	24 min
Apr 19, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Madison, Washington	24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.