Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MAIN CONCERN IS DEFINITELY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IS VERY NEAR
THE I35 CORRIDOR AT PRESENT...MOVING EAST. BVO/TUL/RVS WILL BE
IMPACTED AROUND 01Z PER DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL...WITH MLC FOLLOWING
AROUND 02Z...AND FYV/XNA/FSM AROUND 04 TO 05Z. WILL CARRY TEMPOS
FOR THE MAIN IMPACT TIME FRAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
TERMINALS MAY BE THREATENED BY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL...AND INDIVIDUAL
TAFS WILL BE AMENDED WHEN A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL WILL SEE THOSE THREATS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT MLC/FSM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ALONG A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITHIN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS PUSHED
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND SFC TEMPS INTO THE 80S. WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA. A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE...AND 40-60KT
0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY INITIATE AND
BECOME SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE CAPABLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSLATE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THIS WILL PUSH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE CUT OFF LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP
TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME TEMPS
SHOULD BE COOLER BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
TEMPS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM...HAVING PRECIP DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. WILL CONTINUE THE 20
POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NEAR SUMMER
LIKE FEEL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  65  78  56 /  30  80  30  20
FSM   86  68  84  59 /  10  80  20  20
MLC   86  68  84  59 /  10  70  10  10
BVO   84  62  74  56 /  30  80  40  30
FYV   80  66  79  56 /  10  80  40  30
BYV   82  65  78  55 /  10  70  30  30
MKO   83  67  80  57 /  20  80  20  20
MIO   83  66  73  55 /  20  80  40  40
F10   84  65  80  57 /  30  80  20  10
HHW   87  70  86  60 /   0  70  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...TORNADIC OUTBREAK UNFOLDING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME TORNADIC THIS EVENING...AND TRACK
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN ARKANSAS
AFTER SUNSET.  VIOLENT TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH
THIS WEATHER EVENT...AND ADDITIONAL LONG TRACK VIOLENT
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH SEVERAL LARGE STEM
RIVERS IN FLOOD STATUS.  ADDITIONAL RAINS TONIGHT WILL
WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING...AND RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR RAPID WATER RISES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK WILL BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IN
RECENT DAYS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W PAWHUSKA            36.67N 96.41W
05/24/2011                   OSAGE              OK   STORM CHASER

            10 INCH TREES DOWN AND ACROSS HIGHWAY 60

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W PAWHUSKA            36.67N 96.37W
05/24/2011                   OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HOUSE DESTROYED AND TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. ABOUT
            ONE MILE FROM AIRPORT.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
738 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     MANNFORD                36.13N 96.35W
05/24/2011  E70 MPH          CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            70 TO 80 MPH GUSTS. POWER LINE FLASHES.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
744 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
05/24/2011                   WASHINGTON         OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FRANK PHILLIPS AND VIRGINIA AVE. CHURCH DAMAGED. HOSPITAL
            ALSO DAMAGED AT FRANK PHILLIPS NEAR HWY 75.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W SAND SPRINGS        36.14N 96.16W
05/24/2011  E60 MPH          TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
800 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND GST     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/24/2011  E70 MPH          TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH IN DOWNTOWN AREA FROM TV MEDIA.

&&

SAA