River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

951 
WGUS84 KTSA 290120
FLSTSA
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 
820 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR TAHLEQUAH AFFECTING CHEROKEE COUNTY 
 
OKC021-290920-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110429T1200Z/
/TALO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
820 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXTENDED FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR TAHLEQUAH
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
* AT  700 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET.
* ACTION STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT BANKFULL AND IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE
  BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS FROM CHEWEY BRIDGE 
  DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS TAHLEQUAH.  EXTREME TURBULENCE MAKES THE RIVER 
  TOO HAZARDOUS FOR FLOATING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN THE MEANTIME...A WINDY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND GREEN UP THOUGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BECOME A BIGGER THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND RAIN SPREADS BACK NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTHWEST HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD THE
PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT
HIGH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH MAY OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 40S DURING
THE DAY PER THE NAM12 BUT THIS WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY
SO WILL NOT GO THAT COOL JUST YET. NEVERTHELESS...SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A RAW...WET AND BREEZY DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  80  61  74 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   49  81  56  76 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   49  80  63  75 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   43  80  58  73 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   43  76  55  72 /   0   0  10  40
BYV   45  76  53  72 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   48  79  59  75 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   47  77  56  72 /   0   0  10  40
F10   48  79  60  75 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   47  80  59  76 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER
A FEW AREA RIVERS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MOTORISTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEED WARNINGS FOR WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
        ...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. SETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             OKTAHA                  35.58N 95.47W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

0557 PM     HAIL             STIGLER                 35.25N 95.12W
04/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0647 PM     HAIL             WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
04/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       LATIMER            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0752 PM     HAIL             PETER PENDER            35.36N 93.93W
04/24/2011  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   PUBLIC

&&

SAA