Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Watches in 2011

Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

November 20, 201117 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood watch at Nov 20, 2011, 3:51 AM CST for 17 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas. It took effect at Nov 21, 2011, 3:08 AM CST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 20, 2011, 3:51 AM CST (09:51 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 21, 2011, 3:08 AM CST
Expired
Nov 22, 2011, 3:11 AM CST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Flood severity
None
All 21 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-11-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 15 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-11-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 258 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-277 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
258 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

464 
WGUS64 KTSA 200951
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44...

.A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-201800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0006.111122T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
351 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON... 
  CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND 
  WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...
   DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH... 
  MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA... 
  ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND WAGONER. 

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH
  AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
  UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
  RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
945 
WGUS64 KTSA 201704
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-202315-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.111122T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
1104 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE 
  FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... 
  PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND 
  WAGONER. 

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY 
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH 
  FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

* IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME MAIN STEAM 
  RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING...
  ESPECIALLY ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

$$
718 
WGUS64 KTSA 202130
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-211000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.111122T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
330 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE 
  FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... 
  PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND 
  WAGONER. 

* FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY 
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

* IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND 
  STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY 
  ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
  HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /OKCESFTSA/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
  SERVICE IN TULSA.  RIVER FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
  NEEDED IN SOME AREAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY 
RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO 
BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

$$
849 
WGUS64 KTSA 210908
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTREMELY MOIST
AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-211715-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FF.A.0006.111121T0908Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
308 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE
  FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
  PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND WAGONER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY 
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING 
  WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

* IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND 
  STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY 
  ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
  HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /OKCESFTSA/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
  SERVICE IN TULSA. RIVER FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE 
  NEEDED IN SOME AREAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

$$
077 
WGUS64 KTSA 211705
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTREMELY
MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-220200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
1105 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE 
  FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... 
  PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND 
  WAGONER. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA...STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
  OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO EIGHT INCHES 
  POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS 
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  

  A NARROW ZONE OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY 
  FALLEN ACROSS LATIMER...AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES. THESE 
  AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL SPREADS INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS. 

* IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND 
  STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING.
  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /OKCESFTSA/ 
  ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA. RIVER FLOOD 
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS LATER TODAY
  OR TUESDAY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GIVEN MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN IT IS HARDER 
TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING 
IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO 
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT 
DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE 
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
994 
WGUS64 KTSA 212121
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE 
SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-060>076-221000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
321 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
  MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE 
  FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... 
  PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA AND 
  WAGONER. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA...STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING 
  OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO EIGHT INCHES 
  POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS 
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

A NARROW ZONE OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE ALREADY  
FALLEN ACROSS LATIMER...AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES. THESE  
AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SPREADS INTO THIS AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER
BEGINS TO RISE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR
WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

$$
146 
WGUS64 KTSA 220247
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY MOIST AIR AND
THUNDERSTORMS REOCCURRING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

OKZ060>062-064>067-220400-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...BRISTOW...
OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER
847 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

$$

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-063-068>076-221200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-
SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...JAY...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
847 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
   MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... 
  CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...
   MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH. 

* UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY

* ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
  WATCH AREA...WITH RAINFALL EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT.
  SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING SIX INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. FLASH
  FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 

A NARROW ZONE OF THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHERN LATIMER...AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER
BEGINS TO RISE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION
OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

$$
022 
WGUS64 KTSA 220632
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED IN
THESE AREAS.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ063-068>075-220745-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-
HASKELL-LATIMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...JAY...TAHLEQUAH...
STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...
WILBURTON
1232 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTH OF A CLAYTON TO POTEAU LINE HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED INTO THESE AREAS...ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

$$

OKZ049-053-076-221200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
1232 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...CHOCTAW...LE FLORE AND PUSHMATAHA. 

* UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING

* SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUSHMATAHA
  AND LE FLORE COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED
  IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
  AREA...BUT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
  POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHOCTAW COUNTY.
  THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE RUNOFF AND
  RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER
BEGINS TO RISE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION
OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

$$
568 
WGUS64 KTSA 220911
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

OKZ049-053-076-221015-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-111122T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...POTEAU
311 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA
AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE FLOODING CONTINUES
FROM EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ENDED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Nov 20, 3:26 AM CST, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 3:26 AM CST, 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO
NEAR A SALLISAW-MCALESTER LINE. COLD AIR IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH
KINX VWP INDICATING SW WIND AT AND ABOVE 4K FEET. WARM...MOIST...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY...
EVENTUALLY GETTING HUNG UP ACROSS SERN OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR.
QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO HIGH TEMPS
TODAY ARE GOING TO BE VERY TRICKY. GIVEN THE QUICKER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDED TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SERN OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA
COAST WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES ON MONDAY AND IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM APPROACHES.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN OK/WEST CENTRAL AR WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD BET MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH IN THE
WARM SECTOR WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ALSO NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN OUR AREA AND
WE WENT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-44. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWEEP EWRD FAIRLY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY
BUT WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS ERN SECTIONS INTO
TUESDAY WITH LATER FORECASTS.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH LEE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO
THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK. BEGAN POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CARRIED
THEM THROUGH SATURDAY. MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  36  49  42 /  20  30  80  90
FSM   66  49  63  56 /  40  70  80  90
MLC   51  41  61  50 /  30  60  80  90
BVO   38  29  49  40 /  20  20  80  90
FYV   60  44  62  54 /  50  50  80  90
BYV   54  45  63  54 /  50  50  80  90
MKO   47  37  55  45 /  30  40  80  90
MIO   40  34  56  44 /  30  20  70  90
F10   43  36  52  43 /  30  40  80  90
HHW   72  51  70  60 /  30  70  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....69
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 19, 10:06 PM CST, 5 hours 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1006 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1006 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY.
	ONSET...TOWARD MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING NEAR AN OKEMAH TO BENTONVILLE LINE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER
CELLS OVERNIGHT.

PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE NIGHT
AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER...THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY AROUND SUNRISE. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A
FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER LINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH AN AXIS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL A GOOD BET. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MULTIPLE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Oklahoma, 2011Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2011Every flash flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.