Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND ACROSS FAR NE OK AHEAD OF
LIFTING WARMING FRONT...WHICH MAY IMPACT KBVO BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
PERIODICALLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPANDING
WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY OVERNIGHT STRATUS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN RETURN WINDS SHEAR TO KFSM
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS SE KANSAS THIS MORNING IN HE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NOSE OF A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER NORTH. THIS WEEKEND WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF A WARMER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL TRANSITION FURTHER WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. A LIMITED CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY NIGH AS A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES. HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL RETREAT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN CHANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
MAV/MEX/ECMWF GUIDANCE...MAV/MEX JUST A BIT TOO COOL AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT...A LITTLE TOO HOT GIVEN THE LUSH
VEGETATION IN PLACE/TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  72  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   89  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   87  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   84  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   84  67  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   88  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   87  69  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
F10   89  72  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   89  69  89  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY.  THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT BOATING
SAFETY ON AREA LAKES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY EVENING
FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE AREA.  THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTHWARD...WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.