Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
459 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND IS NOW POSITIONED JUST
TO OUR SOUTH... STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RIDE UP
AND OVER THE FRONT... WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS... A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE... DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT... WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN COMMON... AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

OKZ049-073-075-011245-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
714 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

AT 714 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DUNBAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAYTON...STANLEY...TUSKAHOMA...
EUBANKS...DUNBAR AND SARDIS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3451 9573 3452 9572 3452 9568 3459 9568
      3480 9548 3455 9519 3440 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 224DEG 41KT 3453 9558

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

OKZ049-053-011500-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
936 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA

AT 936 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DELA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF SOBOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...SOBOL...APPLE...CORINNE...DELA...RATTAN...CLOUDY AND OLETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3420 9561 3452 9511 3447 9503 3425 9503
      3424 9504 3424 9513 3416 9513 3415 9515
      3406 9515 3401 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1436Z 238DEG 43KT 3422 9550 3408 9524