Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
309 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROF AND EMBEDDED SHORTER WAVE TROFS WITHIN CURRENTLY SWEEPING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. STRONGER NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ALSO
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN THE NE
AND ROTATING SE INTO THE CWA WHILE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 70S. AT
THIS TIME APPEARS THAT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE OVERHEAD
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA. COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER FROM
THE CU FIELD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP ATMOSPHERE MIXED TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND NORTHWEST
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR
FIRE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AND MAY
COINCIDE WITH A PERIOD OF WINDS AROUND 21Z IN THE 15 TO 20MPH RANGE.
FUELS ARE CRITICAL BUT AT THIS TIME THINK RH WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
NOT WARRANT RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

67

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH A RELATVELY QUIET PERIOD OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FIRST IMPACTING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND DROPS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PROGRESSION IS A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT THIS
FASTER SOLUTION WITH A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSION NOTED IN THE UKMET.
NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS SUGGEST LESS ENSEMBLE SPREAD THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACT TIMING WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS NOTED. WILL GENREALLY GO WITH A SLIGHTER FASTER
SOLUTION THAN LAST FORECAST. STILL...NOT A BIG PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED
AS RETURN FLOW IS NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT BRING IN MOISTURE AFTER THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLIFYING WESTERN US RIDGE.

HARDING

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 PERIOD OVER TERMINALS. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EASTWARD...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE. DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE STRONGER
ASCENT/FORCING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES IN THE 19-21Z
TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER
10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
EVENING STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HOLD NORTHERLY
WINDS ABOVE 5 KTS.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

KSZ038-054-122300-
LYON-WABAUNSEE-
525 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LYON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 600 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN LYON AND SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWEST LYON COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9636 3874 9635 3874 9638 3876 9639
      3882 9639 3883 9644 3890 9649 3894 9640
      3872 9614 3865 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 325DEG 36KT 3884 9639