Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
945 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.UPDATE...

...UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND INCREASING FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS AND NEW SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS THE 00 UTC NAM ALSO SUPPORT THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS...
COINCIDENTALLY IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA THAT RECEIVED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. AN INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH SOME MINOR
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH 05Z.
WILL THEN EXPECT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO BE MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS PRIOR TO THAT TIME.
ALL IN ALL...PEAK RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
PROLONGED TSTORM ACTIVITY TO AFFECT SATURATED GROUNDS WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FINE LINE RADAR AND SURFACE MESONET OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA DELINEATING COOLER/MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
AND VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WAS APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF SW KANSAS AND SE COLORADO. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER WAVE...AND ANTICIPATE THIS REGION OF ACTIVITY TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KANSAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING MAY BECOME ROBUST...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
INITIALLY RESIDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. FURTHER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION OVER SE NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS MAY EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX...WITH OUTFLOW PROPAGATING THE
SYSTEM MORE TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION FROM 00Z-
12Z WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS EVENT...WITH THE MOST
PROBABLE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIOR TO
08Z...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF LINE FROM HOLTON TO ABILENE. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE MOST ROBUST
ACTIVITY OVER PREVIOUSLY WET GROUNDS. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY REMAINING IN
THE 80S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BLAIR

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PUSHES IN AND THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S SHOULD BECOME HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS OVER
THE FRONT AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE STATE BUT
WORTH LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
MOVES IN BEHIND TROF PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND WAS ABLE TO DIMINISH
POP CHANCES WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER COOLER SURFACE HIGH THAT SHIFTS INTO THE EAST
COAST. HIGHS END OF THE WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID 80S.
67

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYLIGHT BUT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.

ANDERSON

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ011-012-023-
024-026-039-040.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
453 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
453 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR
GREATER IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL INCREASE FLOODING POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
NORTHWEST OF A HOLTON TO ABILENE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1111 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             1 WNW HORTON            39.66N 95.54W
08/19/2011  E1.25 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1119 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     TSTM WND GST     WSW WHITING             39.59N 95.61W
08/19/2011  M56 MPH          JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCOMPANIED BY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

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