Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-SUNDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

MID AND UPPER FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES IN PLACE...HOWEVER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS AND COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN
WYOMING MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS POOLED IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WYOMING BEHIND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MISSOURI
VALLEY. AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN THIS
REGION SO FAR TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD REACHED HIGHWAY
56 IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH CUMULUS FIELD SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHORT-LIVED STORMS RESULTING IN AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH 1500-2500
J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. STILL GETTING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 A COUNTY
OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT.

BEST GUESS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS FOR STORMS
TO BUILD ON EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS VIA WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. FRONT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST...AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY WITH NORTHWARD DISTANCE FROM THE BOUNDARY. WEAK SHEAR AND
HIGH STORM BASES WOULD PRIMARILY SUPPORT A WIND CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BELIEVE ATTENTION SHOULD THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD AS THE WYOMING FEATURES TRUDGE
EAST THROUGH NEBRASKA. MEAGER LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FEED ANY
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS THEY COME THIS WAY...AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN
MOTION IS LIKELY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AS THE LATE NIGHT
TURNS INTO THE MORNING. ELEVATED NATURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
CONVECTION BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT. AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...THE CONVECTION MAY BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE LATE MORNING...AND KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK DESPITE
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. 09Z SREF TEMPERATURE SPREADS FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS ARE RATHER LARGE FOR A 24 HOUR FORECAST...AND HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH TO MAXES...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL HEAT IS QUITE UNLIKELY.

LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-NEXT SAT.

NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH AT LEAST ONE WAVE WHICH WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN TO KS
WITH HOT WEATHER INTERRUPTED FROM TIME TO TIME BY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONTS THAT WILL HANG UP AND PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR
T-STORMS.

THE FIRST SUCH WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
HOT TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES AND INTO WEDS.
PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY MAINLY WEDS
INTO THU WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY THU. GFS IS PRODUCING QUITE
COOL CONDS THU HOWEVER THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE AND LARGE SHIELD OF
PRECIP. TIMING AND ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCH WAVE IS TOO FAR
OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SO WE WILL CONTINUE A WARMER FCST
THU WITH SOME CHCS FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT ZERO...BUT STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ054>056-058-059.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

KSZ054-022100-
LYON-
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 400 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
LYON COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE EMPORIA AND
NEOSHO RAPIDS. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 118 AND 131 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 143 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 9635 3848 9626 3844 9595 3820 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 218DEG 10KT 3831 9622