Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW NEAR RUSSEL WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ELLSWORTH. A LINE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DRY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STARTING TO GET
INITIATION OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA NEAR MCPHERSON. 0-6KM
SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS AND WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS WELL. DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AVERAGING AROUND 1000-17000 J/KG. LCL HEIGHTS WERE AVERAGING
BETWEEN 1200 TO 1500 METERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT. STORMS
WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN FORMING INTO A LINE WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS.

WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AROUND 00Z.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYLINE SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO.

ON TUESDAY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. 53

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CANNOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING (CWA) AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A POP AND CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR AND DECREASING
CLOUDS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MOST CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE
80S IN THE ABILENE AND EMPORIA AREAS. AFTER ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S THE RULE
ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND  POOL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF EACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF
CONVECTION IS A BIT TRICKY BUT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE 23Z-03Z
PERIOD AT MHK AND FROM 01Z-05Z AT TOP AND FOE ATTM. WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALSO VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
IN THE TSRA ALSO GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 KTS WITH THE TSRA.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ037-054>056-058-
059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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