Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.   JET IN BASE OF THIS
TROUGH AT 500 MB HAS 65 KT JET MAX.  ALL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH
TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF...WITH SURFACE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

CONVECTION NOW FIRING IN WESTERN OK AND SWRN KS AND EXPECT THIS TO
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BEGIN MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD THIS
EVENING.  COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WILL LEAD TO A VOLATILE SITUATION.  SOME CONCERN ABOUT
MODE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE DEVELOPED ONE OR TWO BROKEN SQUALL LINES THAT ACCELERATE
NEWD.  WHETHER WE END UP GETTING SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ON THE WARM FRONT...OR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND LCLS QUITE
LOW...SO TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
KS IF MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OCCUR WITH CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN
KS COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING.

CUTOFF/OCCLUDED LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.  GDP

BREEZY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WRAPPING AROUND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH AND EXIT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGHS NEAR 70 EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES
ZONAL AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS WITH THE LEE SIDE LOW
DEVELOPING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD NOT ONLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S BUT ALSO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PREDAWN THUNDER IN NC KS. KEPT
ONGOING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES
JUST TO THE NORTH.

MAY FINALLY GET SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT BIG UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE WEST COAST. ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE FLOW MAY BRING AN
OUTSIDE RAIN CHANCE BUT AM KEEPING FORECAST DRY ATTM. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S BECOME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
67

&&

.AVIATION...

LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS WILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. AT THAT TIME...DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS WITH EXPECTED WEAKER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
BENEATH UPPER LOW. WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFT
19Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ008>012-020.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1020 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260330-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1020 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING OVER THE
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W WAMEGO              39.20N 96.38W
05/24/2011  E2.14 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 6PM CDT THIS EVENING

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OSKALOOSA               39.22N 95.31W
05/24/2011  M1.90 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ023-024-026-038-039-054-055-058-250415-
COFFEY-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-OSAGE-POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE...EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
OSAGE...LYON...EXTREME WESTERN JEFFERSON...JACKSON...COFFEY AND
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE...EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
OSAGE...LYON...EXTREME WESTERN JEFFERSON...JACKSON...COFFEY AND
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MCFARLAND...BELVUE...PAXICO...EMPORIA...
ALLEN...EMPORIA...ESKRIDGE...
ST. MARYS...EMMETT...ADMIRE...KEENE...MAPLE
HILL...DELIA...ROSSVILLE...WILLARD...HARVEYVILLE...NEOSHO
RAPIDS...DOVER...POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...SILVER
LAKE...BURLINGAME...AUBURN...OSAGE CITY...HOLTON...MAYETTA...
TOPEKA...HOYT...SCRANTON...BETO JUNCTION...
NEW STRAWN...TECUMSEH...BERRYTON...PAULINE...WAVERLY...MERIDEN...
MELVERN...LYNDON...LE ROY...CARBONDALE AND BURLINGTON. MOTORISTS
ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 185 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
128 AND 165 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 327 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9596 3817 9597 3817 9636 3953 9627
      3953 9558 3804 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 256DEG 39KT 3958 9630 3797 9643