Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
201 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAM VEERS
AND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT BACK
SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH AND PUSHES THE
SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CAPPED OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT VERY LOW END POPS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A STORM
FIRES EARLY...BUT WOULD EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON
ON. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH NOON ON
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO DROP QUITE LOW BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TO STAY WARM ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY CLOSELY THOUGH SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BECOME MORE LIKELY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVER THE ROCKIES BY THIS
TIME...WITH WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SEE SEVERAL UNDULATIONS NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY. THIS TIME PERIOD MAY
SEE A BATCH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE IN RECENT MODEL
RUNS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE REALITY OF IT...BUT ANY
PRECIP THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL STILL HAVE TO FALL THROUGH DRY
LOW LEVELS. MAY SEE A BIT OF SUN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER
AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND PREVENT MOST RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
A CONTINUOUS FEED OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN GIVEN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE
SOME FLOODING ISSUES...PARTICULARLY IN THE MARAIS DE CYGNES AND
NEOSHO RIVER BASINS. CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS. MAY SEE THE WARM
SECTOR NOSE INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CROSSES THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW LIFTS
THE FRONT NORTH. COULD SEE A BIT MORE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL GIVEN THE HEIGHT FALLS...
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILE
ALOFT BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PRECIP MAY PRECLUDE A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE AREA MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF A WARMING TREND IN STORE.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

NOSE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 925 MB.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AND DRIZZLE ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE KFOE/KTOP
TERMINALS. MODELS HOWEVER DECREASE THIS BY 09Z ABOUT THE TIME THAT
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP IFR CIGS GOING WITH THE GREATEST
VSBYS RESTRICTIONS AT KFOE/KTOP. WILL THEN KEEP IFR CIGS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z TIMEFRAME WHEN CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS VCNTY UNTIL 17Z WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS TO
MVFR. WILL THEN THEN SCATTER TO VFR BEFORE 23Z AS WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-230730-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
225 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
AND PERHAPS UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE NEOSHO AND MARAIS DE CYGNES RIVER
BASINS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ021-022-035-036-220930-
CLAY-DICKINSON-GEARY-RILEY-
400 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...RILEY...
NORTHERN GEARY AND NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 430 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...RILEY...NORTHERN GEARY AND
NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WAKEFIELD...JUNCTION CITY...
MILFORD LAKE...GRANDVIEW PLAZA...MILFORD...FORT RILEY AIRFIELD...
OGDEN...MANHATTAN AIRPORT...RILEY...RANDOLPH...LEONARDVILLE...KEATS
AND MANHATTAN. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 275
AND 310 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9676 3936 9668 3931 9665 3925 9657
      3923 9657 3920 9652 3919 9655 3917 9654
      3918 9652 3917 9650 3917 9649 3914 9646
      3880 9713 3911 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 235DEG 39KT 3904 9712

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
409 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 AM     HAIL             BURLINGAME              38.75N 95.83W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ022-023-036-221015-
GEARY-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
428 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RILEY...SOUTH CENTRAL
POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHERN GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 515 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN RILEY...SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND
NORTHERN GEARY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE KEATS...MANHATTAN AIRPORT...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MANHATTAN AND ST. GEORGE. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 293 AND 321 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE
SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9639 3905 9639 3904 9640 3904 9646
      3904 9649 3903 9649 3898 9690 3921 9694
      3930 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 257DEG 36KT 3911 9674

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
444 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ038-039-221030-
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
444 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE AND EAST CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 530 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE AND EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
PAULINE...TOPEKA...FORBES FIELD...BERRYTON...BILLARD AIRPORT AND
TECUMSEH. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
166 AND 185 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 341 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SHAWNEE COUNTY...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF TOPEKA AND FOR WABAUNSEE COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9567 3886 9594 3883 9594 3880 9601
      3913 9605 3913 9604 3921 9603 3921 9559
      3908 9560 3905 9558 3906 9556 3906 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0942Z 264DEG 40KT 3920 9593 3889 9584

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