Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Topeka, KS

337 
WWUS53 KTOP 241345
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
845 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSC029-143-241415-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110524T1415Z/
OTTAWA-CLOUD-
845 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR CLOUD AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

AT 842 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCORDIA...CONCORDIA AIRPORT...BENNINGTON...WELLS...AURORA...
NILES...MILTONVALE AND CLYDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9794 3965 9737 3896 9738 3895 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1345Z 255DEG 41KT 3948 9768 3909 9769
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HARDING

175 
WWUS53 KTOP 241400
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
900 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSC029-143-241415-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110524T1415Z/
OTTAWA-CLOUD-
900 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR CLOUD AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

AT 856 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA TO 9 MILES EAST OF MINNEAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLYDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
SAFETY MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OR A BASEMENT. IF
YOU ARE OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9794 3965 9737 3896 9738 3895 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1400Z 255DEG 41KT 3952 9746 3913 9748
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HARDING

268 
WWUS53 KTOP 241412
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
912 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSC029-143-241422-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110524T1415Z/
OTTAWA-CLOUD-
912 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLOUD AND OTTAWA COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 915 AM CDT...

AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9794 3965 9737 3896 9738 3895 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 255DEG 41KT 3955 9729 3916 9731

$$

HARDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS TRACKED ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS
HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAM
FEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A MUCAPE AXIS WITH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG STRETCHES EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE THESE CELLS TO TRACK ALONG THAT INSTABILITY
AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BETTER AXIS TO
THE CONVECTION. THAT SAID THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS WATCH
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH THE EMPORIA AREA. HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF A THREAT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CELLS WITH THE MORE DIRECT INSTABILITY FEED.

THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER
SCENARIO AS IT WILL DROP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. IT WILL THEN BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT AND THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF THE EVENTUAL
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR. STILL ANTICIPATE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA WITH
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE LOW WAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA WITH A LEAD WAVE OF ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST
PER PROFILERS. HRRR MODEL BRINGS THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. ALSO NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS WHILE THE DRY LINE MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. NAM AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH..HOWEVER BY 06Z WED THEY ARE ALL IN THE SAME AREA. DRY LINE
WILL BULGE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES OF 400 TO
700 M2/S2 AND ML CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
SURFACED BASED WITH BACKED WINDS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND NEAR THE
WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR TRAINING CELLS AND PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH IN
NEBRASKA HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN DEFORMATION AXIS AND IN AREA OF
HIGH THETA-E.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AND LEFT SMALL CHANCE IN THE FAR EAST IN THE MORNING.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
DRYING THINGS OUT BRIEFLY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRY AS ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS
DIFFERS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
WITH EJECTING ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERNS INITIALLY ARE WITH INCOMING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
WEST. APPEARS THAT TS WILL REACH MHK BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPO
DECREASES TO MVFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY SFC
WINDS WITH THIS COMPLEX. CONFIDENCE IN DECREASED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
...OR EVEN PRECIP...AS FAR EAST AS TOP/FOE IS LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS...MAIN CONCERN IS IN
EXACT TIMING OF TS ACTIVITY.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN OUTBREAK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY.

ADDITIONALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING OVER THE
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT..