Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Topeka, KS

797 
WWUS53 KTOP 190508
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSC003-031-045-059-139-177-197-190530-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-110819T0530Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-ANDERSON-COFFEY-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-WABAUNSEE-
1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...FRANKLIN...DOUGLAS...NORTHERN
COFFEY...NORTHERN ANDERSON...OSAGE AND SOUTHERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF OSAGE CITY
TO 9 MILES WEST OF OTTAWA TO 11 MILES EAST OF OTTAWA...MOVING SOUTH
AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH TOPEKA...SOUTH LAWRENCE...BALDWIN CITY...CLINTON 
LAKE...GLOBE...POMONA LAKE...PRINCETON...LANE...WILLIAMSBURG... 
MELVERN...RICHMOND...MELVERN LAKE...GREELEY...OLIVET...LEBO...BETO 
JUNCTION...WAVERLY...HARRIS...GARNETT AIRPORT AND GARNETT.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 176.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 199.

STORMS BEHIND THE LEADING GUST FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF 
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE HAS 
BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9507 3834 9595 3902 9596 3895 9549
      3891 9505 3826 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 350DEG 58KT 3864 9580 3854 9541
          3851 9504
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

887 
WWUS53 KTOP 190522
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSC177-197-190532-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-110819T0530Z/
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE
AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9507 3834 9595 3882 9595 3880 9548
      3881 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 350DEG 58KT 3837 9576 3830 9535
          3830 9506

$$

KSC003-031-045-059-139-190530-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-110819T0530Z/
OSAGE-ANDERSON-COFFEY-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-
1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN DOUGLAS...NORTHERN COFFEY...NORTHERN ANDERSON
AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 1218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTH OF OSAGE CITY
TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GARNETT TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF GARNETT...
MOVING SOUTH AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL COFFEY AND CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 160.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 199.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9507 3834 9595 3882 9595 3880 9548
      3881 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 350DEG 58KT 3837 9576 3830 9535
          3830 9506
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY CONCERN IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THIS EVENING / TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SD ATTM...AND
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA BECOMES ABOUT 2500
J/KG OVER THE FAR EAST. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND OAX MID DAY SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE THIS HAS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH.

FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS BRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO FAR NE KS / SW IOWA AND NW MO BETWEEN 03 AND 12Z.
TRICK WILL BE HOW FAR WEST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
WHILE INSTABILITY INCREASES WESTWARD...SO DOES THE CAP. WITHOUT A
STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURE SAVE A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET TO DRIVE THE
STORMS...THIS COMPLEX WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON ITS OWN TRACK.
OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS MANHATTAN...BUT
BETTER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER OVER A CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SENECA
SOUTHEAST TOWARD TOPEKA / LAWRENCE AND AREAS NORTHEAST. WILL FOCUS
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STORM CHANCES THIS AREA. WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND MCS DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO
BE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WOULD ALSO ANTICIPATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WITH 40 KTS OF MID LEVEL SHEAR CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

WOULD EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE 80S WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

67

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN MCS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NE/NORTHERN KANSAS WITH THE GFS/EC/GEM SOLUTIONS BEING IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT TO EACH OTHER. INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS MCS NOT BEING
RESOLVED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER
THE CWA WITH CONVECTION TIMING AND PLACEMENT IN QUESTION. ON
SATURDAY EVENING...THE ECMWF/NAM CONTINUES TO STATION THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA WITH THE OUTLIER GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN KANSAS. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING SIDING WITH ECMWF
AND NAM BLEND. DECIDED TO LEAVE SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS NO STRONG
FORCING IS EVIDENT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON SATURDAY WITH COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND AND SKIES BEING OVERCAST.

BOWEN

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS TWO WAVES MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY REGIONS MON/TUE. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CWA.
SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE DIVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MON-TUE...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE CWA WED/THU AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THOUGH WITH BEST
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 4Z-9Z RANGE. WENT PREVAILING FOR A HOUR BUT
COULD SEE MORE STORMS THROUGH THE PRE-SUNRISE HOURS IF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SET UP PROPERLY. MHK STILL APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE
MAIN CONCERN...THOUGH ALL TERMINALS COULD HAVE LLWS ISSUES
DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF OUTFLOW.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
444 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-192145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
444 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO BURLINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1123 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
08/18/2011                   DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN AT 7TH AND IOWA IN LAWRENCE

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
08/18/2011  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS WITH BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AROUND
            TOWN.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORBES FIELD            38.96N 95.67W
08/18/2011  M63 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TECUMSEH                39.05N 95.58W
08/18/2011                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES. ALSO WIDESPREAD REPORTS
            OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW TOPEKA            39.02N 95.69W
08/18/2011  E60 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH NEAR WASHBURN UNIVERSITY

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE TOPEKA             39.04N 95.66W
08/18/2011                   SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            SHED BLOWN OVER

&&