Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Topeka, KS

973 
WWUS53 KTOP 071616
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1116 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSC117-201-071630-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-110807T1630Z/
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
1116 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES...

AT 1111 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HANOVER...OR 10 MILES WEST OF MARYSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARNES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9701 3995 9685 3980 9663 3969 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 304DEG 17KT 3982 9681
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

726 
WWUS53 KTOP 071627
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSC117-201-071638-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-110807T1630Z/
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1128 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9701 3995 9685 3980 9663 3969 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 304DEG 17KT 3979 9675

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MULTIPLE
MCS'S/CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BEING GENERATED FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTS AND VARYING DEGREES OF WARM
ADVECTION. THE CLOSEST CONVECTION TO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WEST CENTRAL MO. THE FORCING FROM THESE
MESOSCALE PROCESSES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT
WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND NORTHEAST AND LOWER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAKENING CONVECTION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT TO THE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AREA WOULD ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEPER THE HIGHER
CHANCE POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL LINGERING.
ALTHOUGH MORNING OUTFLOWS ARE PLAYING HAVOC WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS...FEEL THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA SOUTH TO NORTH RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE HEAT
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
WILL INCREASE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LLVL WIND FIELD. WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...INCREASING SHEAR AND APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST (AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION)...APPEARS MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. COULD SEE A
REPEAT ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY
OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND EXITING THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH...WITH HEAT INDICES LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEAT HEADLINES. THE FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH A DRY FCST. WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND NORTH WINDS.

HOWEVER INCREASING WAA WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INTERACT WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW TO
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 00Z. TS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.
TS ARE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF TS SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TIMING WITH CB
GROUP. LARGE TS COMPLEX MAY AFFECT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF TS...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
VCTS GROUP AND MAINTAINED VFR CIG/VIS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-081015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
505 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH
OF I 70. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR HEAT INDICES
COMMONLY IN THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.