Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Topeka, KS

296 
WWUS53 KTOP 040054
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
754 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC127-040115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110404T0115Z/
MORRIS-
754 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 750 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WILSEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COUNCIL GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COUNCIL GROVE LAKE...COUNCIL GROVE AND DUNLAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 9692 3857 9693 3859 9688 3874 9638
      3873 9635 3851 9636 3851 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 260DEG 43KT 3861 9657
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ANTICIPATED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HAVE
ADVECTED INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWING BETWEEN AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP STILL OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO
200 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LEFT TO OVERCOME. THE
HRRR/NAM/RUC13 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TOWARDS AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SHAWNEE COUNTY
RIGHT AROUND 7 PM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS WOULD INITIALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH...AND
MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD OCCUR AS STORMS FORM INTO A QLCS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THINK THAT STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SET TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING FROM THE UPPER
40S INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...THE COLD
AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR HIGHS MODELS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALL THE WAY TO 750 MB. THIS WOULD YIELD LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE TEMPS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE SO HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM THAT.

WOLTERS

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING...A COOL START TO TUESDAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR
70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WED...CLEARING MOST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS WILL BE FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MIDDLE
60S IN NC KS TO NEAR 70 IN EC KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DELINEATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED WITH
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT/TIMING IN BRINGING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN US EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND PHASING WITH THE
EVOLVING AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US ON THU. THIS
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT...RETURNING THE WARM SECTOR BACK INTO THE CWA. THE END
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AS THE UPPER
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR IS INITIALLY
SHUNNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY IT RETURNS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. A NOTABLE WESTERN TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT UPPER TROUGH PLACEMENT AND
ORIENTATION...WHICH PLAYS A ROLE IN LOCATION OF KEY SURFACE
FEATURES. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST ALONG/NORTH OF RETURNING WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...THEN IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WAVE ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS ON THE
STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED. BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS
TO PROGRESSION/TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM...WHICH PRECLUDES SPECIFICS
ATTM.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BE NEAR MHK THROUGH 01Z...
TOP THROUGH AROUND 02Z...AND FOE THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT LARGE HAIL
WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER
THAN CONVECTIVE IMPACTS...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ALL SITES PRIOR TO 01Z WITH
WIND BECOMING NORTHERLY AND REMAINING GUSTY.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ020>022-
034>037.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
305 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM
GENERALLY WITHIN A 30 MILE CORRIDOR FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO
TOPEKA. INITIAL STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 40 MPH. HOWEVER THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS
ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS ARE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
60 TO 70 MPH. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
INITIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY DEVELOP.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE UNTIL 7 PM DUE
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 7
PM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 6
PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
720 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAPLE HILL              39.08N 96.03W
04/03/2011                   WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            MAJOR STRUCTUAL DAMAGE TO AN OUTBUILDING.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
725 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             4 S OZAWKIE             39.18N 95.47W
04/03/2011  E0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             ESE WHITE CITY          38.79N 96.73W
04/03/2011  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
734 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             MARYSVILLE              39.84N 96.65W
04/03/2011  E0.25 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
735 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             BURDICK                 38.56N 96.85W
04/03/2011  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             KS   PUBLIC

            SW CORNER OF BURDICK

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
737 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             11 SSW ALMA             38.86N 96.37W
04/03/2011  E1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB