Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Topeka, KS

106 
WWUS53 KTOP 032330
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC161-032338-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110404T0000Z/
RILEY-
630 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.


LAT...LON 3924 9584 3921 9593 3921 9603 3918 9603
      3907 9639 3917 9639 3918 9643 3928 9648
      3953 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 246DEG 40KT 3918 9630

$$

KSC085-149-197-040000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110404T0000Z/
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-WABAUNSEE-
630 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE...EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WAMEGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELVUE...ST. MARYS...EMMETT...DELIA AND HAVENSVILLE.

AT 623 PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 8 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF WAMEGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9584 3921 9593 3921 9603 3918 9603
      3907 9639 3917 9639 3918 9643 3928 9648
      3953 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 246DEG 40KT 3918 9630
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

064 
WWUS53 KTOP 032351
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC197-040001-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110404T0000Z/
WABAUNSEE-
651 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3945 9601 3924 9584 3921 9593 3921 9603
      3918 9603 3920 9606 3935 9616 3940 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 246DEG 40KT 3928 9600

$$

KSC085-149-040000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110404T0000Z/
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-
651 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMMETT...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
ROSSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 9601 3924 9584 3921 9593 3921 9603
      3918 9603 3920 9606 3935 9616 3940 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 246DEG 40KT 3928 9600
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ANTICIPATED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S HAVE
ADVECTED INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWING BETWEEN AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP STILL OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO
200 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LEFT TO OVERCOME. THE
HRRR/NAM/RUC13 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TOWARDS AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SHAWNEE COUNTY
RIGHT AROUND 7 PM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS WOULD INITIALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH...AND
MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD OCCUR AS STORMS FORM INTO A QLCS ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THINK THAT STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SET TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING FROM THE UPPER
40S INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...THE COLD
AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR HIGHS MODELS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALL THE WAY TO 750 MB. THIS WOULD YIELD LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE TEMPS
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE SO HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM THAT.

WOLTERS

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING...A COOL START TO TUESDAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR
70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WED...CLEARING MOST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS WILL BE FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MIDDLE
60S IN NC KS TO NEAR 70 IN EC KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...DELINEATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED WITH
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT/TIMING IN BRINGING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN US EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND PHASING WITH THE
EVOLVING AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US ON THU. THIS
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT...RETURNING THE WARM SECTOR BACK INTO THE CWA. THE END
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AS THE UPPER
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR IS INITIALLY
SHUNNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY IT RETURNS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. A NOTABLE WESTERN TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT UPPER TROUGH PLACEMENT AND
ORIENTATION...WHICH PLAYS A ROLE IN LOCATION OF KEY SURFACE
FEATURES. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST ALONG/NORTH OF RETURNING WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...THEN IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WAVE ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS ON THE
STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...ESPECIALLY IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED. BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS
TO PROGRESSION/TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM...WHICH PRECLUDES SPECIFICS
ATTM.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BE NEAR MHK THROUGH 01Z...
TOP THROUGH AROUND 02Z...AND FOE THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT LARGE HAIL
WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER
THAN CONVECTIVE IMPACTS...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ALL SITES PRIOR TO 01Z WITH
WIND BECOMING NORTHERLY AND REMAINING GUSTY.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ020>022-
034>037.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
305 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM
GENERALLY WITHIN A 30 MILE CORRIDOR FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO
TOPEKA. INITIAL STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 40 MPH. HOWEVER THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS
ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS ARE
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
60 TO 70 MPH. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
INITIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY DEVELOP.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE UNTIL 7 PM DUE
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 7
PM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 6
PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

BLAIR