Heat Advisory 6, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
20Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER EAST TX.
IT ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC THERE HAS BEEN A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MORNING PRECIP WITH A WARM FRONT OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KS.

FORECAST FOR NIGHT IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANOTHER MCV WILL DEVELOP
OUT WEST. ALL OF THE MODELS BUT THE GFS SHOW THAT CONVECTION OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL NOT GENERATE ANOTHER MCV. THEREFORE WITH A
GENERAL LACK OF FORCING...AM LESS OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND HAVE
LOWERED POPS. THINK THAT THE DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE ROCKIES MAY
FAVOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING AND PRECIP
STAYING SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
SATURDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE CAPPED BY A WARM LAYER OF AIR AND THAT THE WARM
FRONT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
REMOVED POPS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE MODELS KEEPING AN EASTERLY
WIND /AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AS WELL/ THAT HIGHS SATURDAY COULD
BE A LITTLE TO WARM DUE TO LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MIXING...MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EVEN IF HIGHS DO
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 90S...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL LIKE AROUND
105 DUE TO THE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER AND MID
70S. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE KS RIVER EXPECTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DURING THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

WOLTERS

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES MAKING JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR FRONTAL PASSAGES TO
OCCUR ON A FEW OCCASIONS. FIRST WEAK FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY STALL IN KANSAS FOR SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS SHOULD BE NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY...WITH
FLOW OVER IT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT GIVING AN ELEVATED STORM
THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
STATE IN RESPONSE. HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS INTO MONDAY
AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONTS TIMING WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHERE
AFTERNOON TEMPS END UP MONDAY. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS FOR SUNDAY
TEMPS IN TERMS OF PRECIP TIMING. THE 09Z AND 15Z SREF CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SOME NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT ALSO EXHIBIT A QUITE LARGE SPREAD TEMP FIELDS...AND NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THIS INCLUSION. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY GOOD SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
STORMS. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY THINKING THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST BY DAWN. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PERIODS SHOULD SEE
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN RETURN...WITH FRONT PERHAPS EXITING
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SPECIFICS OF THIS TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP SMALL POPS INTO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. COOLER TEMPS SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

65

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND IF CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL THAT BRINGS ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE AM
NOT CONFIDENT ANOTHER MCS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THAT
FORECAST SHOULD BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS DUE TO WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER
THE TERMINALS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO WATCH OUR FOR MVFR VSBY DUE
TO GROUND FOG AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ022>024-026-
035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS RIVER
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAT INDICES INCREASING TO AROUND
105 DEGREES

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS

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