Heat Advisory 5, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE. THERE WAS ALSO A VORT MAX RETROGRADING
WEST ACROSS SOUTH TX.

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MODELS SHOW 850 TEMPS WARMING BETWEEN 28C AND 30C WITH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DRY ADIABATIC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO MOIST WHILE THE NAM LOOKS TO MIX IT OUT TO MUCH. THEREFORE
USED A COMPROMISE FOR HIGHS TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST...KEPT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S...HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 100
AND 105. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL TEMPS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST AND THE
MODELS COOL 850 TEMPS SUGGESTING TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT MAY NOT BE AS GREAT...IT
SHOULD STILL FEEL HOT. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY INTO
TUESDAY OR EVEN UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THE PROLONGED DURATION
/FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS/ OF 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER WITH THE
MODELS SLIGHTLY COOLER AT 850 AND SFC DEWPOINTS A LITTLE COOLER DUE
TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS LIFTING NORTH...HEAT INDICES STAY CLOSER
TO AROUND 100 FOR TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY ON TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
INTACT.

THE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THERE ARE WILL BE HIT OR MISS THROUGH
TUESDAY SINCE THERE IS NO STRONG FORCING AND A LACK OF A SFC FEATURE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. CONVECTION FORM THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY MOVE ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND KEPT SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT
MAX NOTED IN SOUTH TX LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THERE REMAINS A LACK
OF A STRONG SFC FEATURE SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE RATHER
SCATTERED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BRING A MINOR BREAK TO THE HEAT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REDEVELOP THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERING IT OVER EASTERN KS AND THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN OMEGA BLOCK. THEREFORE HAVE A HOT
AND DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS