Excessive Heat Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR COUNCIL GROVE
TO OTTAWA. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS MARION AND CHASE COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AIDED BY DAY TIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITH
WEAK SHEAR ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH AND
HALF.

THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AIDED BY DAY TIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK. THE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HOT
AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS PRODUCING
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 103 TO 111.

FORECAST MODELS SUPPORT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AERIAL COVERAGE
DEPENDENT UPON DAY TO DAY MESOSCALE SET UP.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

ANDERSON

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 103 TO 111 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W OAK HILL            39.25N 97.40W
07/28/2011                   OTTAWA             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT OF DAMAGE WIND TO A HAY SHED, LOAFING
            SHED, AND BROKE POSTS AT THE GROUND. THREW A 500 GALLOON
            TANK ABOUT 100 YARDS. WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 60-80 MPH.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW CLYDE              39.55N 97.45W
07/15/2011                   CLOUD              KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT OF NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION FRONT PORCH
            RIPPED OFF, HLAF A TIN ROOF RIPPED OFF, BRICK AND MORTAR
            CRACKED ON ALL FOUR CORNERS OF HOUSE, AND SOME RAFTERS
            CRACKED AND SPLIT. A 53 FOOT TRAILER BLOWN ON ITS SIDE
            ALL THE CONTENTS SPILLED. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF AN OLD
            HOUSE. STEEL ROD POSTS AND PIPES SHEERED OFF. BARN ROOF
            LIFTED UP AND RAFTER BROKEN IN METAL SHED.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W OAK HILL            39.25N 97.40W
07/28/2011                   OTTAWA             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT OF DAMAGE WIND TO A HAY SHED, LOAFING
            SHED, AND BROKEN POSTS AT THE GROUND. THREW A 500 GALLON
            TANK ABOUT 100 YARDS. WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 60-80 MPH.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW WELLS             39.13N 97.59W
07/28/2011                   OTTAWA             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN OTTAWA COUNTY
            NEAR THE STATE LAKE. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF N 180TH RD AND LIMESTONE RD. THREE
            TREES REPORTED UPROOTED AT THE OTTAWA COUNTY STATE LAKE.
            THREE TREES ALSO REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            KIOWA RD AND N 180TH RD. BARN REPORTED MOSTLY DESTROYED
            WITH PIECES BLOWN HALF A MILE AWAY AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            KIOWA RD AND N 190TH RD.

&&

ANDERSON